je.st
news
Hurricane LINDA Forecast Discussion Number 13
2015-09-09 04:32:57| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT TUE SEP 08 2015 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 090232 TCDEP5 HURRICANE LINDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152015 800 PM PDT TUE SEP 08 2015 Cloud tops within Linda's CDO feature have warmed significantly since the previous advisory, likely due to the erosion of eyewall convection in the northern semicircle caused by the entrainment of dry mid-level air as noted in recent microwave satellite imagery. Although the 15 n mi diameter eye remains quite distinct, satellite intensity estimates have decreased sharply. The initial intensity of 100 kt is based on an average of Dvorak satellite T-numbers and CI-numbers from TAFB and SAB. The initial motion estimate is now 325/11 kt. The track and forecast reasoning remain unchanged. The NHC model guidance is in very good agreement on Linda moving northwestward for the next 48 hours, followed by a turn to the west-northwest by 72 hours. After that time, the model tracks are widely divergent based on the intensity and resultant vertical depth of the cyclone on days 4 and 5. The ECMWF takes a weak remnant low due west, whereas the stronger GFS and HWRF models take Linda more poleward. The official forecast at 96 and 120 hours is a compromise of these extremes and lies close to the TCVE and GFEX consensus model tracks. Linda will be moving over sub-26C SSTs and over upper-ocean-heat- content (UOHC) values of near zero about 12 hours, while the hurricane is slowing down to less than 10 kt of forward speed. This should result in significant cold upwelling beneath the cyclone and induce a rapid weakening phase. As result, Linda is expected to weaken to a tropical storm by Thursday morning, a depression by Thursday night, and a remnant low on Friday. The official intensity forecast follows the downward trend of the previous forecast and the IVCN intensity consensus model. Although Linda is forecast to remain well offshore of the Baja California peninsula, large swells are expected to affect portions of the west coast of that peninsula during the next few days. In addition, some of Linda's mid- and upper-level moisture is expected to spread northward into portions of the southwestern U.S. by day 2 and beyond, which could help trigger locally heavy rainfall. For additional information, please consult products issued by the NOAA Weather Prediction Center and your local weather forecast office. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0300Z 22.7N 115.6W 100 KT 115 MPH 12H 09/1200Z 23.7N 116.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 10/0000Z 25.0N 117.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 10/1200Z 26.1N 118.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 11/0000Z 26.9N 119.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 12/0000Z 27.6N 121.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 13/0000Z 27.8N 123.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 14/0000Z 27.6N 125.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Stewart
Tags: number
discussion
linda
forecast
Category:Transportation and Logistics
Latest from this category |
All news |
||||||||||||||||||
|
|||||||||||||||||||