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Hurricane LINDA Forecast Discussion Number 6
2015-09-07 10:53:48| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT MON SEP 07 2015 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 070853 TCDEP5 HURRICANE LINDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152015 300 AM MDT MON SEP 07 2015 Linda has continued to rapidly strengthen overnight. An 0631 UTC GMI microwave overpass shows that a well-defined eye has developed within the very symmetric central dense overcast (CDO) feature that is seen in conventional satellite imagery. The eye has not yet become evident in the infrared satellite data. The initial wind speed has been increased to 75 kt, which is in agreement with the latest TAFB Dvorak classification and ADT intensity estimates from UW/CIMSS. Linda is likely to continue to rapidly strengthen today. The hurricane will be traversing very warm water and remain in a moist, low shear environment. The NHC intensity forecast now brings Linda to major hurricane strength in 24 hours, which is slightly above the intensity guidance. After that time, decreasing SSTs and less favorable thermodynamic factors are expected to cause weakening. A faster rate of decay is likely after 48 hours when Linda moves over SSTs below 26C and into a much more stable environment. The latter portion of the intensity forecast is essentially an update of the previous advisory and is close to the SHIPS model. The initial motion estimate is 315/12. The hurricane is forecast to move northwestward during the next 2 to 3 days around the western portion of a mid-level ridge that is centered over northern Mexico. After that time, a weaker Linda should turn west-northwestward, and then westward in the low to mid-level flow on the southern side of a low-level ridge. The track guidance is in good agreement on this scenario. The guidance has shifted a bit to the north at 72 hours and beyond, and the NHC forecast has been adjusted accordingly. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0900Z 16.7N 111.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 07/1800Z 18.2N 112.6W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 08/0600Z 20.0N 114.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 08/1800Z 21.5N 115.1W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 09/0600Z 22.8N 116.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 10/0600Z 25.2N 118.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 11/0600Z 26.0N 120.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 12/0600Z 26.0N 122.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Brown
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