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Hurricane LINDA Forecast Discussion Number 8
2015-09-07 22:32:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT MON SEP 07 2015 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 072032 TCDEP5 HURRICANE LINDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152015 300 PM MDT MON SEP 07 2015 After strengthening at a rapid pace for the past day or so, it appears that Linda's intensity is leveling off. The cloud pattern has not changed much since the last advisory and consists of a well organized central dense overcast with very cold cloud tops. There remains no evidence of an eye in geostationary satellite pictures, although a ragged eye is apparent in microwave images. The latest Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB are both 5.0/90 kt, so the initial wind speed is nudged upward to that value. Linda could strengthen a little more through tonight while it remains over warm water and in a moist and relatively low shear environment. After that time, however, cooler water and a dry and stable air mass should promote steady weakening. The new NHC intensity forecast is largely an update of the previous one and is in fair agreement with the intensity model consensus. This forecast calls for Linda to degenerate into a remnant low in about 4 days when the cyclone is expected to be over sea surface temperatures of about 24 deg C. The hurricane is still moving northwestward but at a slightly slower forward speed than earlier, 320/10 kt. A continued northwestward motion at about the same forward speed is predicted for the next 24 to 36 hours while a mid-level high pressure system remains centered over northern Mexico and the southern United States. After that time, the storm is expected to decelerate, as the high shifts westward and weakens, and then turn gradually westward once it becomes a shallow system by the end of the forecast period. The NHC track forecast is adjusted to the right of the previous one, especially at days 3-5, to come into better agreement with the latest consensus aids. Although Linda is forecast to remain well offshore of the Baja California peninsula, large swells are expected to affect portions of the west coast of that peninsula during the next few days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/2100Z 18.3N 112.7W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 08/0600Z 19.6N 113.7W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 08/1800Z 21.2N 114.8W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 09/0600Z 22.7N 115.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 09/1800Z 24.0N 116.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 10/1800Z 25.8N 118.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 11/1800Z 26.4N 120.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 12/1800Z 26.4N 122.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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