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Hurricane LINDA Forecast Discussion Number 9
2015-09-08 04:57:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT MON SEP 07 2015 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 080256 TCDEP5 HURRICANE LINDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152015 900 PM MDT MON SEP 07 2015 Linda's cloud pattern has become less organized since earlier today. A 0116 UTC SSMIS pass showed the low-level center on the northeastern tip of the deepest convection, to the northeast of previous estimates. The distribution of convection in the cyclone's central dense overcast has also become somewhat asymmetric. The current structural organization of the cyclone suggests that moderate northeasterly shear over the cyclone has been a factor in the system's evolution today. The initial intensity estimate is lowered to 80 kt, on the lower end of a blend of Dvorak Final T- and CI-numbers from TAFB and SAB. Although most large-scale factors could favor some additional intensification, the current arrested development is likely to continue as Linda continues to feel the effect of northeasterly shear associated with an upper-level anticyclone to its northeast. Within 24 to 36 hours, Linda will be traversing marginally cool waters and ingesting drier and more stable air, which should result in slow but steady weakening. The rate of weakening should become rapid in 2 to 3 days once Linda reaches even colder waters and thermodynamic factors become increasingly more hostile. Remnant low status is now predicted in 3 days. The new NHC forecast is lowered relative to the previous one and generally lies near the multi-model consensus. Linda has been moving northwestward or 325/09 throughout the day. The cyclone is moving in a deep-layer southeasterly flow on the southwestern periphery of a subtropical ridge located over northern Mexico. The ridge is forecast to weaken during the next couple of days, which should result in a decrease in Linda's forward speed while it maintains about the same heading. The low-level trades should begin to steer the cyclone west-northwestward in 2 to 3 days, and then westward after that time as Linda weakens and becomes an increasingly shallower cyclone. The NHC track forecast has been adjusted to the right of the previous one, based on a re-positioning of the center based on recent microwave fixes. Although Linda is forecast to remain well offshore of the Baja California peninsula, large swells are expected to affect portions of the west coast of that peninsula during the next few days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0300Z 18.8N 112.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 08/1200Z 20.4N 113.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 09/0000Z 21.8N 115.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 09/1200Z 23.1N 116.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 10/0000Z 24.4N 117.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 11/0000Z 25.9N 119.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 12/0000Z 26.3N 121.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 13/0000Z 26.3N 124.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Kimberlain
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