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Hurricane Rafael Forecast Advisory Number 14
2024-11-07 03:51:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU NOV 07 2024 571 WTNT23 KNHC 070251 TCMAT3 HURRICANE RAFAEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182024 0300 UTC THU NOV 07 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.5N 83.6W AT 07/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 969 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 20SW 25NW. 34 KT.......100NE 90SE 40SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 30SE 30SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.5N 83.6W AT 07/0300Z AT 07/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.2N 83.2W FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 24.4N 84.9W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 24.6N 86.7W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 24.6N 88.5W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 24.6N 89.8W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 24.8N 90.9W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 25.0N 91.7W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 40SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z 24.8N 92.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 40SE 30SW 60NW. OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z 24.2N 93.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 30SW 50NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.5N 83.6W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 07/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Tropical Depression Fourteen-E Graphics
2024-11-07 03:46:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 07 Nov 2024 02:46:30 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 07 Nov 2024 03:28:48 GMT
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Depression Fourteen-E Forecast Discussion Number 3
2024-11-07 03:46:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM CST Wed Nov 06 2024 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 070246 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Fourteen-E Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142024 900 PM CST Wed Nov 06 2024 Tropical Depression Fourteen-E failed to produce any significant deep convection near its center from 1800 UTC to 0000 UTC, but recently, some convection has been firing up in the northwest quadrant. Earlier scatterometer data from midday Wednesday showed that the circulation just barely met the definition of being considered well-defined, with 20-25 kt wind vectors seen in the southwestern semi-circle and weaker winds in the northeastern semi-circle. The depression is located within an environment of warm ocean temperatures but moderate southeasterly vertical wind shear. This shear should continue and is unlikely to allow any significant convection to organize around the weak low-level center. Global model solutions agree that the depression will continue to weaken. In fact, most global models show the depression opening up into a trough in about 24 h. The official intensity forecast follows the global model solutions, and indicates dissipation in 24-36 h. Low-level northwesterly flow is expected to steer the system toward the southeast over the next 24 h until it dissipates. A minor southwestward adjustment was made to the NHC track forecast, closer to the latest consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0300Z 13.4N 104.9W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 07/1200Z 12.7N 104.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 08/0000Z 11.9N 103.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 08/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Hagen
Category: Transportation and Logistics