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Hurricane Rafael Forecast Discussion Number 14
2024-11-07 03:52:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM EST Wed Nov 06 2024 000 WTNT43 KNHC 070252 TCDAT3 Hurricane Rafael Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024 1000 PM EST Wed Nov 06 2024 The eye of Rafael made landfall just after the last advisory was issued with an estimated intensity of 100 kt. Since then, the center has crossed western Cuba into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, and a combination of land interaction and increasing southwesterly shear has caused some weakening. Reports from NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the central pressure has risen to near 969 mb, and that the maximum winds have decreased to near 90 kt. In addition, radar data from Cuba and the Key West WSR-88D show that the eyewall structure has decayed, with the deep convection now confined to the northeastern quadrant. The initial motion is 315/11. Rafael is on the southwest side of a low- to mid-level ridge over the western Atlantic and the Florida Peninsula. This ridge is forecast to build westward in response to a developing deep-layer trough over the southwestern United States. This evolution should cause the cyclone to move westward across the Gulf of Mexico with some decrease in forward speed during the next 2-3 days. The track guidance remains divergent after 72 h. The GFS and Canadian models show the cyclone being caught in southerly flow between the deep-layer trough and a ridge over the eastern Gulf of Mexico and turn the system northward. The ECMWF and UKMET forecast the ridge to be more over the western Gulf of Mexico between Rafael and the trough, and thus turn the cyclone southwestward. The GFS and ECMWF ensemble runs have tracks that support both of these possibilities. Given the spread and uncertainty, this low-confidence latter part of the forecast track shows a slow west-southwestward motion close the the consensus models. The global models suggest that the current shear should decrease in about 24 h, then increase again later in the forecast period. The forecast track keeps the system over relatively warm sea surface temperatures, especially if it turns southwestward. However, all of the guidance agrees that the airmass over the Gulf will be quite dry, and this should lead to gradual weakening even if the system stays over the warm water. There remains a lot of uncertainty in the intensity forecast, as the environment is much more hostile to the north of the forecast track and somewhat more favorable to the south of the forecast track. The intensity forecast follows the overall trend of the guidance, but the guidance itself has a significant spread. Since the eyewall structure has decayed and the system is moving away from western Cuba, there will be no more hourly updates for Rafael. Three-hourly public advisories will continue as long as watches and warnings are in effect. Key Messages: 1. While Rafael is now moving away from western Cuba, a hurricane warning remains in effect for this region where a life-threatening storm surge, damaging hurricane-force winds, and destructive waves are still possible. 2. Tropical-storm-force winds, especially in gusts, are expected in the Lower and Middle Florida Keys tonight. 3. Hurricane Rafael will continue to bring periods of heavy rain to western Cuba into Thursday. Flash flooding and mudslides are possible along the higher terrain. 4. Rafael is forecast to meander over the south-central Gulf of Mexico this weekend and early next week. Interests in the southern and southwestern Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0300Z 23.5N 83.6W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 07/1200Z 24.4N 84.9W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 08/0000Z 24.6N 86.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 08/1200Z 24.6N 88.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 09/0000Z 24.6N 89.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 60H 09/1200Z 24.8N 90.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 10/0000Z 25.0N 91.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 11/0000Z 24.8N 92.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 12/0000Z 24.2N 93.3W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Hurricane Rafael Public Advisory Number 14
2024-11-07 03:51:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM EST Wed Nov 06 2024 572 WTNT33 KNHC 070251 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Rafael Advisory Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024 1000 PM EST Wed Nov 06 2024 ...CENTER OF RAFAEL MOVING AWAY FROM WESTERN CUBA... ...STORM SURGE, WINDS, AND RAINS SHOULD SUBSIDE ACROSS CUBA TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM EST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.5N 83.6W ABOUT 80 MI...125 KM WNW OF HAVANA CUBA ABOUT 135 MI...220 KM WSW OF KEY WEST FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...969 MB...28.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Government of Cuba has discontinued all warnings for the provinces of Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, Matanzas, and the Isle of Youth. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio, Artemisa, La Habana, and Mayabeque A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Lower and Middle Florida Keys from Key West to west of the Channel 5 Bridge * Dry Tortugas A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 PM EST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Rafael was located near latitude 23.5 North, longitude 83.6 West. Rafael is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A general northwestward motion is anticipated tonight. A turn toward the west at a slower forward speed is expected on Thursday, with this general motion continuing through Saturday. On the forecast track, Rafael is expected to move away from western Cuba over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico tonight. Rafael is then forecast to move over the southern Gulf of Mexico for the next few days. Reports from Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Some weakening is possible tonight and Thursday, with little change in strength expected on Friday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km). The minimum central pressure estimated from the Hurricane Hunter aircraft data is 969 mb (28.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Hurricane Rafael can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to continue in portions of western Cuba for the next few hours. Tropical storm conditions are expected in parts of the lower and middle Florida Keys through tonight. RAINFALL: Additional rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches are expected into Thursday, leading to storm total accumulations of 12 inches across portions of western Cuba. This may lead to areas of flash flooding and mudslides, especially along the higher terrain. Rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches are expected for the Lower and Middle Florida Keys. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Hurricane Rafael, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf STORM SURGE: Storm surge flooding along the coast of Cuba should subside tonight. The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Dry Tortugas...1-3 ft Lower Florida Keys...1-2 ft TORNADOES: A couple of brief tornadoes remain possible this evening, mainly over parts of the Lower Florida Keys. SURF: Swells generated by Rafael are expected to affect much of the northwestern Caribbean during the next day or so and will also spread across most of the Gulf of Mexico from east to west late this week into the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM EST. Next complete advisory at 400 AM EST. $$ Forecaster Beven
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Hurricane Rafael Forecast Advisory Number 14
2024-11-07 03:51:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU NOV 07 2024 571 WTNT23 KNHC 070251 TCMAT3 HURRICANE RAFAEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182024 0300 UTC THU NOV 07 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.5N 83.6W AT 07/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 969 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 20SW 25NW. 34 KT.......100NE 90SE 40SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 30SE 30SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.5N 83.6W AT 07/0300Z AT 07/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.2N 83.2W FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 24.4N 84.9W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 24.6N 86.7W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 24.6N 88.5W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 24.6N 89.8W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 24.8N 90.9W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 25.0N 91.7W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 40SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z 24.8N 92.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 40SE 30SW 60NW. OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z 24.2N 93.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 30SW 50NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.5N 83.6W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 07/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Category: Transportation and Logistics