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Tropical Depression Fourteen-E Forecast Discussion Number 3
2024-11-07 03:46:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM CST Wed Nov 06 2024 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 070246 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Fourteen-E Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142024 900 PM CST Wed Nov 06 2024 Tropical Depression Fourteen-E failed to produce any significant deep convection near its center from 1800 UTC to 0000 UTC, but recently, some convection has been firing up in the northwest quadrant. Earlier scatterometer data from midday Wednesday showed that the circulation just barely met the definition of being considered well-defined, with 20-25 kt wind vectors seen in the southwestern semi-circle and weaker winds in the northeastern semi-circle. The depression is located within an environment of warm ocean temperatures but moderate southeasterly vertical wind shear. This shear should continue and is unlikely to allow any significant convection to organize around the weak low-level center. Global model solutions agree that the depression will continue to weaken. In fact, most global models show the depression opening up into a trough in about 24 h. The official intensity forecast follows the global model solutions, and indicates dissipation in 24-36 h. Low-level northwesterly flow is expected to steer the system toward the southeast over the next 24 h until it dissipates. A minor southwestward adjustment was made to the NHC track forecast, closer to the latest consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0300Z 13.4N 104.9W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 07/1200Z 12.7N 104.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 08/0000Z 11.9N 103.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 08/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Hagen
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Summary for Tropical Depression Fourteen-E (EP4/EP142024)
2024-11-07 03:44:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION LIKELY TO DISSIPATE IN A DAY OR SO... As of 9:00 PM CST Wed Nov 6 the center of Fourteen-E was located near 13.4, -104.9 with movement ESE at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Depression Fourteen-E Public Advisory Number 3
2024-11-07 03:44:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM CST Wed Nov 06 2024 951 WTPZ34 KNHC 070244 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Fourteen-E Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142024 900 PM CST Wed Nov 06 2024 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION LIKELY TO DISSIPATE IN A DAY OR SO... SUMMARY OF 900 PM CST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.4N 104.9W ABOUT 410 MI...660 KM SW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 110 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 PM CST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fourteen-E was located near latitude 13.4 North, longitude 104.9 West. The depression is moving toward the east-southeast near 3 mph (6 km/h). A slightly faster southeastward motion is expected over the next day or so. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is expected, and the depression could become a remnant low or dissipate at any time over the next day or so. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 AM CST. $$ Forecaster Hagen
Category: Transportation and Logistics