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Hurricane Rafael Wind Speed Probabilities Number 14
2024-11-07 03:52:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU NOV 07 2024 000 FONT13 KNHC 070252 PWSAT3 HURRICANE RAFAEL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182024 0300 UTC THU NOV 07 2024 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RAFAEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 90 KTS...105 MPH...165 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT KEY WEST FL 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NAPLES FL 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) VENICE FL 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) TAMPA FL 34 1 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) GFMX 290N 850W 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) X(10) BURAS LA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X 3( 3) 5( 8) 6(14) 7(21) 2(23) 1(24) GFMX 280N 890W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) HOUMA LA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 6(11) 13(24) 4(28) 1(29) GFMX 280N 910W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) MORGAN CITY LA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) NEW IBERIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) GFMX 280N 930W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 13(19) 5(24) 1(25) GFMX 280N 930W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) CAMERON LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) GALVESTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) FREEPORT TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) GFMX 280N 950W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 5(13) 1(14) MATAGORDA TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) PORT O CONNOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) GFMX 270N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 6(13) 1(14) HARLINGEN TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) BROWNSVILLE TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) GFMX 250N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 9(17) 2(19) GFMX 250N 960W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) MERIDA MX 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) COZUMEL MX 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 1 2( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) 1( 9) HAVANA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ISLE OF PINES 34 1 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Hurricane Rafael Public Advisory Number 14
2024-11-07 03:51:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM EST Wed Nov 06 2024 572 WTNT33 KNHC 070251 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Rafael Advisory Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024 1000 PM EST Wed Nov 06 2024 ...CENTER OF RAFAEL MOVING AWAY FROM WESTERN CUBA... ...STORM SURGE, WINDS, AND RAINS SHOULD SUBSIDE ACROSS CUBA TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM EST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.5N 83.6W ABOUT 80 MI...125 KM WNW OF HAVANA CUBA ABOUT 135 MI...220 KM WSW OF KEY WEST FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...969 MB...28.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Government of Cuba has discontinued all warnings for the provinces of Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, Matanzas, and the Isle of Youth. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio, Artemisa, La Habana, and Mayabeque A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Lower and Middle Florida Keys from Key West to west of the Channel 5 Bridge * Dry Tortugas A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 PM EST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Rafael was located near latitude 23.5 North, longitude 83.6 West. Rafael is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A general northwestward motion is anticipated tonight. A turn toward the west at a slower forward speed is expected on Thursday, with this general motion continuing through Saturday. On the forecast track, Rafael is expected to move away from western Cuba over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico tonight. Rafael is then forecast to move over the southern Gulf of Mexico for the next few days. Reports from Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Some weakening is possible tonight and Thursday, with little change in strength expected on Friday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km). The minimum central pressure estimated from the Hurricane Hunter aircraft data is 969 mb (28.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Hurricane Rafael can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to continue in portions of western Cuba for the next few hours. Tropical storm conditions are expected in parts of the lower and middle Florida Keys through tonight. RAINFALL: Additional rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches are expected into Thursday, leading to storm total accumulations of 12 inches across portions of western Cuba. This may lead to areas of flash flooding and mudslides, especially along the higher terrain. Rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches are expected for the Lower and Middle Florida Keys. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Hurricane Rafael, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf STORM SURGE: Storm surge flooding along the coast of Cuba should subside tonight. The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Dry Tortugas...1-3 ft Lower Florida Keys...1-2 ft TORNADOES: A couple of brief tornadoes remain possible this evening, mainly over parts of the Lower Florida Keys. SURF: Swells generated by Rafael are expected to affect much of the northwestern Caribbean during the next day or so and will also spread across most of the Gulf of Mexico from east to west late this week into the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM EST. Next complete advisory at 400 AM EST. $$ Forecaster Beven
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Hurricane Rafael Forecast Advisory Number 14
2024-11-07 03:51:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU NOV 07 2024 571 WTNT23 KNHC 070251 TCMAT3 HURRICANE RAFAEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182024 0300 UTC THU NOV 07 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.5N 83.6W AT 07/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 969 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 20SW 25NW. 34 KT.......100NE 90SE 40SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 30SE 30SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.5N 83.6W AT 07/0300Z AT 07/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.2N 83.2W FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 24.4N 84.9W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 24.6N 86.7W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 24.6N 88.5W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 24.6N 89.8W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 24.8N 90.9W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 25.0N 91.7W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 40SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z 24.8N 92.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 40SE 30SW 60NW. OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z 24.2N 93.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 30SW 50NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.5N 83.6W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 07/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Category: Transportation and Logistics