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Hurricane Rafael Forecast Discussion Number 16
2024-11-07 15:53:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 900 AM CST Thu Nov 07 2024 000 WTNT43 KNHC 071453 TCDAT3 Hurricane Rafael Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024 900 AM CST Thu Nov 07 2024 The Air Force and NOAA Hurricane Hunters have been investigating Rafael this morning. Tail Doppler Radar data and reports from the flight crews, in addition to earlier passive microwave imagery, indicate the eyewall has opened up to the south and southwest of the center. This is likely due to the negative influences of some drier mid-level air and westerly shear. The Air Force Hurricane Hunters have reported peak 700-mb flight-level winds of 92 kt, and dropsonde data indicate the central pressure has risen slightly to around 971 mb. Given the latest flight-level wind data and some erosion of the eyewall convection, the initial intensity is lowered to 85 kt. The hurricane is expected to move into an even drier airmass over the next few days, with at least weak to moderate westerly shear over the system. So despite 27-28 deg C SSTs over the southern Gulf of Mexico, some additional weakening is forecast through this weekend into early next week. Rafael should remain a hurricane for the next couple of days, but some downward adjustments were made to the NHC intensity forecast to bring it closer to the latest multi-model consensus aids. Even still, the NHC forecast lies on the higher side of the guidance envelope. Recent aircraft fixes indicate Rafael is beginning a leftward turn, and the initial motion estimate is west-northwestward at 295/8 kt. The hurricane should move westward over the next couple of days as a mid-level ridge builds to its north. Then, there is still some spread in the track guidance with a bifurcation in model solutions. Most of the models (including the ECMWF, UKMET, and regional hurricane models) show Rafael turning southwestward in response to a narrow ridge building to its northwest. But, the GFS and Canadian models still suggest a northward turn ahead of a slightly deeper upper trough over the central United States. The NHC prediction continues to favor the southern solutions and is similar to the previous forecast, in agreement with the majority of track models and consensus aids. There remains above average uncertainty in the future track of Rafael, and additional adjustments to subsequent official track forecasts are likely. If the northern model solutions were to verify, Rafael would likely encounter even more hostile environmental conditions and weaken faster than shown in the official NHC forecast. Key Messages: 1. Hurricane Rafael will continue to bring periods of heavy rain to western Cuba today. Flash flooding and mudslides are possible along the higher terrain. 2. Rafael is forecast to move slowly over the south-central Gulf of Mexico this weekend and early next week. Interests in the southern and southwestern Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/1500Z 24.5N 85.2W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 08/0000Z 24.6N 86.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 08/1200Z 24.6N 88.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 09/0000Z 24.6N 89.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 09/1200Z 24.7N 91.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 10/0000Z 24.7N 91.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 10/1200Z 24.5N 92.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 11/1200Z 24.0N 93.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 12/1200Z 22.0N 94.0W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Reinhart
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Hurricane Rafael Wind Speed Probabilities Number 16
2024-11-07 15:52:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU NOV 07 2024 000 FONT13 KNHC 071452 PWSAT3 HURRICANE RAFAEL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182024 1500 UTC THU NOV 07 2024 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RAFAEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 85 KTS...100 MPH...155 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GFMX 290N 870W 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) BURAS LA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 280N 890W 34 1 3( 4) 4( 8) 3(11) 3(14) 1(15) 1(16) HOUMA LA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X 3( 3) 4( 7) 5(12) 5(17) 2(19) X(19) MORGAN CITY LA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) GFMX 280N 930W 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) 6(14) 2(16) 1(17) CAMERON LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) GALVESTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) GFMX 280N 950W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 5( 7) 3(10) X(10) MATAGORDA TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) PORT O CONNOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) GFMX 270N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 2(10) 1(11) GFMX 250N 960W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 9(12) 6(18) 1(19) GFMX 250N 960W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) VERACRUZ MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) MERIDA MX 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) COZUMEL MX 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER REINHART
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Summary for Hurricane Rafael (AT3/AL182024)
2024-11-07 15:51:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...RAFAEL TURNING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO... As of 9:00 AM CST Thu Nov 7 the center of Rafael was located near 24.5, -85.2 with movement WNW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 971 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 100 mph.
Category: Transportation and Logistics