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Hurricane Rafael Wind Speed Probabilities Number 16
2024-11-07 15:52:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU NOV 07 2024 000 FONT13 KNHC 071452 PWSAT3 HURRICANE RAFAEL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182024 1500 UTC THU NOV 07 2024 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RAFAEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 85 KTS...100 MPH...155 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GFMX 290N 870W 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) BURAS LA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 280N 890W 34 1 3( 4) 4( 8) 3(11) 3(14) 1(15) 1(16) HOUMA LA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X 3( 3) 4( 7) 5(12) 5(17) 2(19) X(19) MORGAN CITY LA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) GFMX 280N 930W 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) 6(14) 2(16) 1(17) CAMERON LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) GALVESTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) GFMX 280N 950W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 5( 7) 3(10) X(10) MATAGORDA TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) PORT O CONNOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) GFMX 270N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 2(10) 1(11) GFMX 250N 960W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 9(12) 6(18) 1(19) GFMX 250N 960W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) VERACRUZ MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) MERIDA MX 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) COZUMEL MX 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER REINHART
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Summary for Hurricane Rafael (AT3/AL182024)
2024-11-07 15:51:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...RAFAEL TURNING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO... As of 9:00 AM CST Thu Nov 7 the center of Rafael was located near 24.5, -85.2 with movement WNW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 971 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 100 mph.
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Hurricane Rafael Public Advisory Number 16
2024-11-07 15:51:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 900 AM CST Thu Nov 07 2024 000 WTNT33 KNHC 071451 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Rafael Advisory Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024 900 AM CST Thu Nov 07 2024 ...RAFAEL TURNING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 900 AM CST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.5N 85.2W ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM WNW OF HAVANA CUBA ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM W OF KEY WEST FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...971 MB...28.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the southern and southwestern Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of Rafael. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM CST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Rafael was located near latitude 24.5 North, longitude 85.2 West. Rafael is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn toward the west is expected later today, with this general motion continuing through the weekend. On the forecast track, Rafael is expected to move over the southern Gulf of Mexico for the next few days. Data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters indicate that maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional weakening is anticipated during the next few days. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 971 mb (28.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Hurricane Rafael can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml RAINFALL: Additional rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches are expected today, leading to storm total accumulations of 12 inches across portions of western Cuba. This may lead to areas of flash flooding and mudslides, especially along the higher terrain. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Hurricane Rafael, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf SURF: Swells generated by Rafael are expected to spread across most of the Gulf of Mexico during the next several days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM CST. $$ Forecaster Reinhart
Category: Transportation and Logistics