je.st
news
Hurricane Rafael Public Advisory Number 16
2024-11-07 15:51:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 900 AM CST Thu Nov 07 2024 000 WTNT33 KNHC 071451 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Rafael Advisory Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024 900 AM CST Thu Nov 07 2024 ...RAFAEL TURNING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 900 AM CST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.5N 85.2W ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM WNW OF HAVANA CUBA ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM W OF KEY WEST FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...971 MB...28.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the southern and southwestern Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of Rafael. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM CST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Rafael was located near latitude 24.5 North, longitude 85.2 West. Rafael is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn toward the west is expected later today, with this general motion continuing through the weekend. On the forecast track, Rafael is expected to move over the southern Gulf of Mexico for the next few days. Data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters indicate that maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional weakening is anticipated during the next few days. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 971 mb (28.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Hurricane Rafael can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml RAINFALL: Additional rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches are expected today, leading to storm total accumulations of 12 inches across portions of western Cuba. This may lead to areas of flash flooding and mudslides, especially along the higher terrain. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Hurricane Rafael, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf SURF: Swells generated by Rafael are expected to spread across most of the Gulf of Mexico during the next several days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM CST. $$ Forecaster Reinhart
Category:Transportation and Logistics
LATEST NEWS
Tropical Depression Fourteen-E Graphics
2024-11-07 15:50:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 07 Nov 2024 14:50:32 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 07 Nov 2024 14:50:32 GMT
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Depression Fourteen-E Forecast Discussion Number 5
2024-11-07 15:49:57| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM CST Thu Nov 07 2024 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 071449 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Fourteen-E Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142024 900 AM CST Thu Nov 07 2024 The depression is once again struggling to produce deep organized convection. Thunderstorms from the diurnal maximum overnight have dissipated, and the low-level center is nearing an area of convection not associated with the depression. Furthermore, the outflow boundaries from the adjacent thunderstorms seem to be disrupting the low-level circulation. The TAFB Dvorak Final-T has also trended downward to T1.5, reflecting the decaying convective organization. The initial intensity is held at a possibly generous 25 kt for this advisory. Environmental conditions should remain marginal to hostile and prevent further strengthening. Global models continue to predict that the depression should open into a trough within a day, though it is possible this has already occurred. The latest official intensity forecast still shows dissipation occurring by Friday. The depression is moving at an uncertain 110/4 kt. The low-level flow is expected to turn the depression to the southeast soon. The NHC track position is near the corrected consensus aid, HCCA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/1500Z 13.2N 104.4W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 08/0000Z 12.3N 103.7W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 08/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Bucci
Category: Transportation and Logistics