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Post-Tropical Cyclone KEVIN Forecast Discussion Number 20
2015-09-05 16:46:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT SAT SEP 05 2015 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 051446 TCDEP4 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE KEVIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142015 900 AM MDT SAT SEP 05 2015 Strong south-southwesterly vertical wind shear of around 30 kt removed deep convection from Kevin's low-level circulation, beginning around 0000 UTC. The deep convection, along with Kevin's mid-level circulation, has since dissipated. With no active convection for some time, Kevin is being declared a post-tropical remnant low. The initial wind speed is lowered to 30 kt in accordance with the latest satellite classifications and based on the assumption that some spin down of the circulation has occurred since the last advisory. Global models depict Kevin degenerating into a trough of low pressure in about 12 hours, and the official forecast indicates dissipation in about a day. The cyclone was moving north-northeastward overnight while slowing down, but has since turned northward and recently north- northwestward. The initial motion estimate is now 340/06. A turn toward the northwest is expected before the cyclone dissipates tomorrow in agreement with the track model guidance. For additional information on this remnant low, please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and available on the Web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/1500Z 23.6N 114.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 06/0000Z 24.0N 115.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 06/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kimberlain
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