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Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2024-11-03 21:53:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN NOV 03 2024 000 FONT13 KNHC 032053 PWSAT3 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE EIGHTEEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182024 2100 UTC SUN NOV 03 2024 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE EIGHTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 17(18) 3(21) 1(22) MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 25(26) 3(29) 1(30) KEY WEST FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) NAPLES FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 3(15) 1(16) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 5(13) 2(15) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 1( 9) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 3( 9) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 3(13) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 6(17) GFMX 290N 870W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) STENNIS MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) BURAS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 9(22) GFMX 280N 890W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) GFMX 280N 890W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) HOUMA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 10(16) GFMX 280N 910W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) MORGAN CITY LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) LAFAYETTE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) NEW IBERIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) GFMX 280N 930W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) LAKE CHARLES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) CAMERON LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) GALVESTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) GFMX 280N 950W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) COZUMEL MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 3(10) 1(11) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 36(38) 6(44) X(44) CP SAN ANTONIO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 2(16) 1(17) CP SAN ANTONIO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 30(31) 2(33) X(33) HAVANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 57(66) 1(67) X(67) ISLE OF PINES 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 29(30) X(30) 1(31) ISLE OF PINES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) X(10) X(10) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 29(45) X(45) 1(46) CIENFUEGOS 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) X( 8) 1( 9) CIENFUEGOS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) GRAND CAYMAN 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 32(34) 14(48) X(48) 1(49) GRAND CAYMAN 50 X X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 10(19) X(19) X(19) GRAND CAYMAN 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MONTEGO BAY 34 X 2( 2) 32(34) 12(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) MONTEGO BAY 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) KINGSTON 34 X 3( 3) 15(18) 2(20) 1(21) X(21) X(21) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen Forecast Advisory Number 1
2024-11-03 21:53:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN NOV 03 2024 000 WTNT23 KNHC 032052 TCMAT3 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE EIGHTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182024 2100 UTC SUN NOV 03 2024 POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 77.1W AT 03/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 77.1W AT 03/2100Z AT 03/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 77.1W FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 14.3N 77.1W...TROPICAL CYCLONE MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 16.0N 77.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 17.7N 78.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 19.6N 80.4W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 30SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 21.5N 82.6W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 23.3N 84.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 40SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 25.4N 86.6W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 40SW 90NW. OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 26.9N 88.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 50SW 100NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.0N 77.1W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 04/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0300Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Subtropical Storm Patty Forecast Discussion Number 7
2024-11-03 21:32:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 900 PM GMT Sun Nov 03 2024 000 WTNT42 KNHC 032032 TCDAT2 Subtropical Storm Patty Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172024 900 PM GMT Sun Nov 03 2024 After being devoid of deep convection for much of the day, thunderstorms have reformed near the center of Patty. Therefore, Patty will hold its subtropical storm designation for now. The initial intensity is held at 40 kt in deference to the earlier scatterometer data. However, strong vertical wind shear, dry mid-latitude air, and cool sea surface temperatures should weaken Patty during the next couple of days. No changes have been made to the latest NHC intensity forecast. The storm is moving eastward at 15 kt and is forecast to move eastward to east-northeastward for the next couple of days. Patty is still expected to open into a trough near or over western Europe, and only minor adjustments have been made to the official track forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/2100Z 37.3N 22.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 04/0600Z 37.7N 19.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 24H 04/1800Z 38.9N 14.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 05/0600Z 40.2N 11.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 05/1800Z 41.2N 8.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 06/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Bucci
Category: Transportation and Logistics