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Subtropical Storm Patty Forecast Discussion Number 4
2024-11-03 03:32:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 300 AM GMT Sun Nov 03 2024 000 WTNT42 KNHC 030232 TCDAT2 Subtropical Storm Patty Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172024 300 AM GMT Sun Nov 03 2024 The convective structure of Patty has changed some over the past several hours as the center passes just south of the central Azores. While the cloud tops have cooled, the convection is now mainly to the northeast of the center, and the overall cloud pattern is elongated south-to-north. The system remains embedded in a deep-layer cold air mass, with surface temperatures in the Azores currently below 20C. Satellite intensity estimates have decreased a little due to the decreased convective symmetry, and this is the basis for lowering the initial intensity to 50 kt. Patty is expected to weaken over the next few days as the parent upper-level low decays to an open trough, leaving the storm in stronger shear. While this happens, it should also move into a drier and more stable airmass. This combination is expected to cause the convection to dissipate by 36 h, with the storm becoming a post-tropical low at that time. The latest global model guidance suggests that the remnant low is likely to decay to a trough by 72 h, so the new intensity forecast now calls for dissipation by then. The initial motion is now 095/17 kt. The mid-latitude westerly flow is expected to steer the cyclone eastward for 12-24 h, followed by an east-northeastward motion. The models remain in fairly good agreement, and the forecast track is again near the middle of the guidance envelope. Key Messages: 1. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Azores through the weekend, where Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect. 2. Locally heavy rains are possible across the Azores through the weekend. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0300Z 37.9N 27.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 03/1200Z 37.6N 24.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 04/0000Z 37.6N 20.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 04/1200Z 38.5N 16.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 48H 05/0000Z 40.1N 12.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 60H 05/1200Z 41.6N 9.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 06/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Summary for Subtropical Storm Patty (AT2/AL172024)
2024-11-03 03:32:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...PATTY CONTINUING TO PASS NEAR THE AZORES... ...EXPECTED TO BRING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AZORES THROUGH THE WEEKEND... As of 3:00 AM GMT Sun Nov 3 the center of Patty was located near 37.9, -27.8 with movement E at 20 mph. The minimum central pressure was 985 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Subtropical Storm Patty Public Advisory Number 4
2024-11-03 03:32:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 300 AM GMT Sun Nov 03 2024 062 WTNT32 KNHC 030232 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Subtropical Storm Patty Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172024 300 AM GMT Sun Nov 03 2024 ...PATTY CONTINUING TO PASS NEAR THE AZORES... ...EXPECTED TO BRING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AZORES THROUGH THE WEEKEND... SUMMARY OF 300 AM GMT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...37.9N 27.8W ABOUT 75 MI...115 KM SSW OF LAJES IN THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 95 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * All of the Azores A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case through the weekend. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM GMT (0300 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Patty was located near latitude 37.9 North, longitude 27.8 West. The storm is moving toward the east near 20 mph (31 km/h), and an eastward to east-northeastward motion is expected during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Patty is expected to move near or just south of the Azores through the overnight period. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is expected during the next few days. Patty is forecast to become a post-tropical low late this weekend or Monday. Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km) mainly to the southwest of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 985 mb (29.09 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Azores through the weekend. For more information, see products issued by the meteorological service in the Azores. RAINFALL: RAINFALL: Patty is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches (25 to 50 millimeters) with local amounts to 4 inches (100 mm) across the Azores through early Monday. SURF: Swells generated by Patty will affect the Azores over the next day or two. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 600 AM GMT. Next complete advisory at 900 AM GMT. $$ Forecaster Beven
Category: Transportation and Logistics
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