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Subtropical Storm Patty Forecast Discussion Number 6
2024-11-03 15:34:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 300 PM GMT Sun Nov 03 2024 000 WTNT42 KNHC 031434 TCDAT2 Subtropical Storm Patty Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172024 300 PM GMT Sun Nov 03 2024 Patty is beginning to pull away from the Azores, with the center now just east of the easternmost islands. The storm is also on its way to becoming a post-tropical cyclone as deep convection has been absent for more than 6 hours. Recent ASCAT-A and ASCAT-B passes show peak winds in the 35-40 kt range, and based on that data and the degraded satellite appearance, the initial intensity is lowered to 40 kt. The strongest winds are occurring on the system's south side, just south of the easternmost Azores. Very strong westerly vertical wind shear, stable air, and cool waters should continue to cause weakening, and Patty will likely degenerate into a post-tropical cyclone in the next 6 to 12 hours. Dissipation has been moved up to 60 h based on the latest global model guidance. Patty is moving eastward at 14 kt in relatively zonal flow, and an eastward to east-northeastward toward western Europe is expected until the system dissipates. The NHC track forecast is near the middle of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/1500Z 37.5N 24.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 04/0000Z 37.3N 21.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 24H 04/1200Z 38.3N 16.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 05/0000Z 39.7N 12.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 05/1200Z 40.8N 10.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 06/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Summary for Subtropical Storm Patty (AT2/AL172024)
2024-11-03 15:33:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...PATTY BEGINNING TO PULL AWAY FROM THE AZORES... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT... As of 3:00 PM GMT Sun Nov 3 the center of Patty was located near 37.5, -24.3 with movement E at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 992 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Subtropical Storm Patty Public Advisory Number 6
2024-11-03 15:33:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 300 PM GMT Sun Nov 03 2024 000 WTNT32 KNHC 031433 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Subtropical Storm Patty Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172024 300 PM GMT Sun Nov 03 2024 ...PATTY BEGINNING TO PULL AWAY FROM THE AZORES... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 300 PM GMT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...37.5N 24.3W ABOUT 175 MI...285 KM ESE OF LAJES AIR BASE IN THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 100 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * All of the Azores A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM GMT (1500 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Patty was located near latitude 37.5 North, longitude 24.3 West. The storm is moving toward the east near 16 mph (26 km/h) and an eastward to east-northeastward motion is expected during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Patty is expected to pull away from the Azores. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is expected during the next couple of days, and Patty is forecast to become a post-tropical low later today or tonight. Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Azores for the next few hours. RAINFALL: Patty is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches (25 to 50 millimeters) with local amounts to 4 inches (100 mm) across the Azores through early Monday. SURF: Swells generated by Patty will affect the Azores through tonight. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 600 PM GMT. Next complete advisory at 900 PM GMT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
Category: Transportation and Logistics