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Tropical Depression FIFTEEN-E Forecast Discussion Number 2
2015-09-06 10:56:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT SUN SEP 06 2015 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 060856 TCDEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152015 300 AM MDT SUN SEP 06 2015 Deep convection associated with the depression has increased in coverage overnight, but the overall organization of the cyclone has not changed very much. The center appears to be located near the eastern edge of the deep convection due to moderate northeasterly shear. An ASCAT overpass at 0416 UTC was very helpful in locating the center and revealed wind speeds of around 30 kt, which is used as the initial intensity for this advisory. The shear is forecast to decrease during the next 24 hours, which should allow for steady strengthening, and the depression is likely to become a tropical storm very soon. The cyclone is expected to remain in a favorable environment through late Tuesday, and the NHC forecast calls for the system to become a hurricane within the next couple of days. This is supported by the SHIPS and LGEM models. After 72 hours, decreasing sea surface temperatures and increasing shear should cause weakening by days 4 and 5. The depression is moving northwestward at about 10 kt. The cyclone is expected to continue moving northwestward over the next 3 to 4 days while it remains on the southwestern side of a mid-level ridge over Mexico. The models are in relatively good agreement on this scenario, but have trended a little northward after 72 hours and indicate a faster forward motion through much of the forecast period. As a result, the new NHC forecast is faster than the previous advisory, and has also been nudged northward after 48 hours. The new forecast lies along the southern edge of the guidance envelope in best agreement with the GFS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0900Z 13.7N 108.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 06/1800Z 14.9N 109.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 07/0600Z 16.4N 111.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 07/1800Z 18.2N 112.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 08/0600Z 19.7N 114.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 09/0600Z 21.7N 116.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 10/0600Z 23.0N 118.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 11/0600Z 24.0N 122.0W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown
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