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Tropical Depression FOURTEEN-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
2015-08-31 22:39:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT MON AUG 31 2015 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 312039 TCDEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142015 300 PM MDT MON AUG 31 2015 Animation of recent visible satellite imagery indicates that the low pressure area well to the south of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico has a well-defined circulation. Recently, deep convection has formed near and partially over the center. On this basis, the system is being designated as a tropical depression. The current intensity estimate is 30 kt, which is slightly above the subjective Dvorak estimates at 1800 UTC. The tropical cyclone is not in an ideal environment for strengthening. A broad upper-level cyclone to the northwest is producing southwesterly shear in the path of the depression, and global models predict that this shear may briefly relax in 1 to 2 days, but increase thereafter. Although the official intensity forecast is on the high side of the guidance, it nonetheless shows weakening to a remnant low by the end of the forecast period. The initial motion estimate is 305/9 kt. A mid-level ridge currently to the north of the depression is forecast to shift eastward over the next few days. As a result, the tropical cyclone should turn toward the north in 48 to 72 hours. There is some spread in the model guidance, including significant differences in predicted forward speed. As a compromise, the official track forecast is roughly in the middle of the guidance, and close to the dynamical model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 31/2100Z 12.4N 111.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 01/0600Z 13.5N 113.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 01/1800Z 14.7N 114.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 02/0600Z 16.3N 115.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 02/1800Z 18.3N 115.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 03/1800Z 21.2N 115.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 04/1800Z 23.3N 114.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 05/1800Z 24.6N 114.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Cangialosi/Pasch
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