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Tropical Depression FOURTEEN-E Forecast Discussion Number 10
2015-09-03 04:35:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT WED SEP 02 2015 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 030235 TCDEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142015 800 PM PDT WED SEP 02 2015 Bursts of convection continue to form near and north of the center of the depression. Southerly shear, however, continues to prevent much organization, with the thunderstorms fading in the past hour. The satellite classifications are the same as 6 hours ago, so the initial intensity remains 30 kt. I suspect this is on the conservative side given the curvature of the low clouds and the latest microwave images, but would prefer to wait until there is more concrete data to support an upgrade. The cyclone has about a day to intensify before SSTs become more marginal and drier air infiltrates the circulation. Remnant low status is anticipated by day 3 due to more hostile environmental conditions. The NHC wind speed forecast is similar to the previous advisory, just a bit higher than the intensity consensus. The initial motion is estimated to be 360/6 kt. The global models are in good agreement on the depression moving between a mid-level high over northern Mexico and a mid- to upper-level trough west of the Baja California peninsula during the next few days. The biggest forecast challenge is predicting exactly when the cyclone becomes a more shallow system and takes a leftward turn in response to the low-level flow. In general, the model guidance has trended a bit faster with the westward turn, and the latest NHC forecast is shifted in that direction, though still lies north of the model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0300Z 17.0N 115.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 03/1200Z 18.0N 115.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 04/0000Z 19.2N 115.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 04/1200Z 20.3N 114.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 05/0000Z 21.2N 114.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 06/0000Z 22.3N 115.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 07/0000Z 22.5N 116.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
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