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Tropical Depression FOURTEEN-E Forecast Discussion Number 3
2015-09-01 10:51:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT TUE SEP 01 2015 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 010851 TCDEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142015 300 AM MDT TUE SEP 01 2015 A couple of ASCAT passes between 0400 and 0530 UTC showed that the cyclone was not quite yet producing tropical-storm-force winds--but it was close. A burst of convection has recently developed near the low-level center, but the overall convective pattern is somewhat elongated. The initial intensity is held at 30 kt based on the scatterometer data. The depression still appears to be experiencing some vertical shear, but this shear should stay below 15 kt for the next 36 hours or so. Therefore, some gradual strengthening is expected during that time. Vertical shear increases significantly after 48 hours due to the flow ahead of a large upper-level trough west of the California coast, and the cyclone should therefore weaken back to a depression by day 3 and degenerate to a remnant low by day 4. The updated NHC intensity forecast is close to the intensity consensus and largely unchanged from the previous advisory. The ASCAT data made the low-level center a little easier to locate, and the initial motion estimate is 295/7 kt. The cyclone is expected to turn toward the northwest and north during the next couple of days as it moves between a mid-level anticyclone over Mexico and a deep-layer trough west of the Baja California peninsula. However, once it becomes a remnant low, the system is likely to become trapped in weak low-level flow, meandering or becoming nearly stationary southwest of the Baja California peninsula by day 5. The NHC track forecast is closest to a consensus of the GFS and ECMWF global models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/0900Z 12.6N 113.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 01/1800Z 13.5N 114.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 02/0600Z 15.2N 114.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 02/1800Z 16.9N 115.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 03/0600Z 18.4N 115.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 04/0600Z 20.9N 114.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 05/0600Z 22.0N 114.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 06/0600Z 22.0N 114.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Berg
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