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Tropical Depression FOURTEEN-E Forecast Discussion Number 4
2015-09-01 16:36:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT TUE SEP 01 2015 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 011436 TCDEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142015 900 AM MDT TUE SEP 01 2015 The cloud pattern continues to be elongated and the convection is not very well organized at this time. Since the Dvorak T-numbers have not changed, the initial intensity is kept at 30 kt. The depression has the opportunity to strengthen a little bit during the next day or two, before stronger southerly upper-level winds ahead of a trough impact the cyclone. The NHC intensity forecast is close to the consensus and similar to the previous one. The initial motion is toward the north-northwest or 330 degrees at 7 kt. The depression is forecast to be steered toward the north-northwest and northward by the flow around a sharp trough located to the west of the cyclone, and eventually recurves toward the north-northeast by day 3. After that time, the cyclone is expected to be weaker and become steered by the low-level flow. Little motion is then anticipated. This is the solution provided by most of the dynamical guidance. The NHC forecast follows very closely the consensus of the GFS and the ECMWF global models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/1500Z 13.0N 113.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 02/0000Z 14.0N 114.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 02/1200Z 16.0N 114.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 03/0000Z 17.5N 115.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 03/1200Z 19.0N 115.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 04/1200Z 21.5N 114.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 05/1200Z 22.0N 114.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 06/1200Z 22.5N 114.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Avila
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