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Tropical Depression FOURTEEN-E Forecast Discussion Number 6
2015-09-02 04:43:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT TUE SEP 01 2015 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 020243 TCDEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142015 900 PM MDT TUE SEP 01 2015 The depression is no better organized than it was earlier today. Satellite imagery shows the cyclone with a couple of loosely organized bands without much curvature over the eastern half of circulation. This assymetric and disorganized cloud pattern is indicative of southwesterly shear induced by a mid- to upper-level tropospheric trough to the northwest of the depression. The initial intensity estimate is 30 kt, based on a blend of the latest Dvorak estimates. A relative reduction in vertical shear is forecast in 24 to 36 hours, when the trough to the west of the depression shears out. All other factors being equal at that time, this should present the cyclone with a limited opportunity for intensification. After 48 hours, the cyclone should meet a harsh environment of very dry air and southwesterly shear associated with an unusually deep trough digging along the U.S. west coast. The global models indicate that the shear should be strong enough that the low- to mid-level circulations separate in about 72 hours, with dissipation by day 5. The intensity guidance has decreased across the board, and the new intensity forecast shows less intensification but still with a peak in 24 to 36 hours. This new forecast, however, is higher than the statistical-dynamical guidance. The depression's center is difficult to locate, but a blend of the latest fixes and a continuity provide an initial motion estimate of 325/08. A south-southeasterly to southerly steering flow between a subtropical ridge over Mexico and the trough to the west should cause the depression to gradually turn northward in 24 to 36 hours. Once the cyclone crosses 20N, strong southwesterly flow ahead of the amplifying western U.S. trough should cause recurvature. However, the decoupling of the system will leave the low-level center behind, moving slowly northeastward. By day 4, the remnant low should drift erratically and then turn southward in the low-level flow until dissipation. The new track forecast is a little slower than the previous one based on a blend of the GFS and ECWMF model solutions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0300Z 14.3N 114.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 02/1200Z 15.7N 115.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 03/0000Z 17.3N 115.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 03/1200Z 18.8N 115.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 04/0000Z 20.1N 115.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 05/0000Z 22.0N 114.2W 25 KT 30 MPH 96H 06/0000Z 22.8N 114.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 07/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kimberlain
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