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Tropical Depression KIKO Forecast Discussion Number 10
2013-09-02 10:42:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT MON SEP 02 2013 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 020842 TCDEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION KIKO DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112013 200 AM PDT MON SEP 02 2013 THE REMAINING DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH KIKO DISSIPATED OVERNIGHT...AND THE CYCLONE HAS BECOME A SWIRL OF LOW- TO MID-LEVEL CLOUDS. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES CONTINUE TO QUICKLY FALL...AND A BLEND OF THE LATEST T- AND CI-NUMBERS SUGGEST AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KT. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SPIN DOWN AND BECOME A REMNANT LOW AS IT MOVES OVER COOL WATERS AND IN A STABLE ENVIRONMENT. DISSIPATION OF THE REMNANT LOW IS FORECAST IN A DAY OR TWO...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE. NIGHTIME VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT KIKO HAS SLOWED DOWN WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 335/4 KT. THE CYCLONE IS PREDICTED TO CONTINUE SLOWING DOWN TODAY AS IT BECOMES SITUATED IN AN AREA OF WEAK LOW-LEVEL STEERING CURRENTS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0900Z 22.7N 116.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 02/1800Z 23.2N 116.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 03/0600Z 23.5N 116.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 03/1800Z 23.7N 116.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 04/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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