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Tropical Depression KIKO Forecast Discussion Number 11
2013-09-02 16:35:21| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT MON SEP 02 2013 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 021435 TCDEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION KIKO DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112013 800 AM PDT MON SEP 02 2013 KIKO HAS ONLY BEEN DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION SINCE ABOUT 0700 UTC AND SOME SHALLOW CONVECTION IS STILL OCCURRING NEAR THE CENTER AND IN THE NORTHERN QUADRANT. AS A RESULT...KIKO IS BEING MAINTAINED AS A 30-KT DEPRESSION...WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH AN AVERAGE OF ALL AVAILABLE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE UPPER- AND LOWER-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS OF THE CYCLONE HAVE NOW DECOUPLED...SO KIKO SHOULD GRADUALLY SPIN DOWN AND BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY AS IT MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS AND INTO A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT. DISSIPATION OF THE REMNANT LOW IS EXPECTED BY 48 HOURS...BUT IT COULD OCCUR SOONER THAN THAT. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 325/02 KT. AS INDICATED IN PREVIOUS ADVISORIES...KIKO HAS SLOWED DOWN CONSIDERABLY. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO BASICALLY MEANDER IN THE SAME GENERAL AREA WITHIN A REGION OF WEAK LOW-LEVEL STEERING CURRENTS UNTIL IT DISSIPATES. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/1500Z 22.9N 116.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 03/0000Z 23.2N 116.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 03/1200Z 23.5N 116.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 04/0000Z 23.7N 116.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 04/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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