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Tropical Depression Thirteen Forecast Advisory Number 1
2024-10-02 16:42:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED OCT 02 2024 000 WTNT23 KNHC 021442 TCMAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132024 1500 UTC WED OCT 02 2024 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.6N 29.1W AT 02/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.6N 29.1W AT 02/1500Z AT 02/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.6N 28.8W FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 10.5N 29.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 10.2N 30.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 10.2N 31.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 10.4N 33.3W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 25NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 11.0N 34.6W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 11.7N 35.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 25SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 13.5N 38.1W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 70SW 90NW. OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 16.5N 41.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 80SW 100NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.6N 29.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Tropical Depression Eleven-E Graphics
2024-10-02 16:38:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 02 Oct 2024 14:38:06 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 02 Oct 2024 14:38:06 GMT
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Depression Eleven-E Forecast Discussion Number 4
2024-10-02 16:36:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM CST Wed Oct 02 2024 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 021436 TCDEP1 Tropical Depression Eleven-E Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112024 900 AM CST Wed Oct 02 2024 First light visible imagery and a GMI microwave overpass during the night show that the center of Tropical Depression Eleven-E is again a little to the southwest of the previous track. While the system is part of a large area of convection, the convection is generally poorly organized, and there has been little change in the various satellite intensity estimates since the last advisory. Based on this, the initial intensity remains 30 kt. The track forecast is of low confidence. Satellite imagery and model analyses indicate that the depression is currently absorbing or merging with the vorticity of the EP97 disturbance, and this has resulted in the system center moving slowly southwestward during the past 6-12 h. The models have diverse solutions for the subsequent track, with the GFS and Canadian taking the cyclone northward into eastern Mexico, while the UKMET forecasts a west-northwestward motion offshore parallel to the coast and the ECMWF forecasting the system to dissipate over water. The new forecast track is a compromise between the the GFS and UKMET forecast and shows the center making landfall between 36-48 h in the current Tropical Storm Warning area. This forecast has some significant changes in direction and speed from the previous forecast, and additional adjustments may be necessary later today and tonight. Regardless of exactly where the cyclone tracks, it is expected to be in an environment of moderate to strong easterly shear through at least 48 h. This should limit the intensification, and the forecast peak intensity of 40 kt remains at the upper edge of the intensity guidance. The main impact from this system is expected to be heavy rainfall, which could lead to flooding and mudslides over portions of southern Mexico and western Guatemala. KEY MESSAGES: 1. The depression is forecast to become a tropical storm before it reaches the coast of southern or southeastern Mexico. A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for portions of the southern coast of Mexico. 2. Tropical Depression Eleven-E will likely bring heavy rainfall to portions of southern Mexico and Guatemala this week. Flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain, are possible, especially from western Guatemala into portions of the Mexican states of Chiapas, Oaxaca, Veracruz, Tabasco and coastal Guerrero. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/1500Z 14.9N 95.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 03/0000Z 14.8N 96.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 03/1200Z 14.9N 96.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 04/0000Z 15.3N 97.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 04/1200Z 16.0N 97.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 60H 05/0000Z 16.4N 98.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
Category: Transportation and Logistics