je.st
news
Tropical Storm ERICK Forecast Discussion Number 4
2013-07-05 10:33:49| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT FRI JUL 05 2013 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 050833 TCDEP5 TROPICAL STORM ERICK DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052013 200 AM PDT FRI JUL 05 2013 ERICK IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...WITH A LARGE AREA OF CLOUD TOPS COLDER THAN -80C NEAR SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER... AND IN A BAND NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND TWO RECENT ASCAT OVERPASSES SUGGEST THE WINDS ARE AT LEAST 35 KT. BASED ON THIS AND CONTINUITY FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 40 KT. THE SCATTEROMETER DATA...RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY...AND DATA FROM THE ACAPULCO RADAR INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF ERICK IS SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY POSITION WITH THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION 300/11. OTHER THAN THIS...THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY. A COMBINATION OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES SHOULD CAUSE ERICK TO MOVE GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 72-96 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY A MORE WESTWARD MOTION. THE BIGGEST QUESTION IS HOW CLOSE WILL THE CENTER BE TO THE COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE FIRST 48 HOURS. DURING THAT TIME...THE FORECAST TRACK LIES NEAR THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...WITH THE GFDL...GFDN...AND CANADIAN MODELS TO THE RIGHT OF IT. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO...BUT SOUTH OF...THE PREVIOUS TRACK. ANY DEVIATION TO THE RIGHT OF THE TRACK...SUCH AS FORECAST BY THE ABOVE-MENTIONED MODELS...WOULD BRING TROPICAL STORM CONDITION ONTO THE MEXICAN COAST. ERICK IS CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING LIGHT/MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...AND THIS IS LIKELY TO PERSIST WITH SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN AMOUNT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS ARE FORECASTING A STRONGER ERICK THAN 6 HOURS AGO AND SHOW THE CYCLONE BECOMING A HURRICANE IN 36-48 HR. ALSO...THE SHIPS RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDEX SHOWS A BETTER THAN 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF 25 KT OF STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE OTHER HAND... IF THE CENTER GETS TOO CLOSE TO THE COAST...LAND INTERACTION COULD RESULT IN A WEAKER CYCLONE. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE STRONGER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT DOES NOT CALL FOR ERICK TO BECOME A HURRICANE. THE FORECAST LIES BETWEEN THE SHIPS/LGEM MODELS AND THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS. THE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN REVISED BASED ON THE ASCAT DATA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0900Z 15.2N 101.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 05/1800Z 15.9N 102.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 06/0600Z 16.8N 103.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 06/1800Z 17.6N 105.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 07/0600Z 18.6N 106.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 08/0600Z 20.5N 110.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 09/0600Z 21.5N 114.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 10/0600Z 22.0N 118.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Tags: number
discussion
storm
tropical
Category:Transportation and Logistics
Latest from this category |
All news |
||||||||||||||||||
|
|||||||||||||||||||