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Tropical Storm ERICK Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
2013-07-05 10:33:57| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI JUL 05 2013 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 050833 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM ERICK WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052013 0900 UTC FRI JUL 05 2013 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERICK WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 101.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X 1 2 3 7 23 42 TROP DEPRESSION 3 7 10 11 25 43 44 TROPICAL STORM 91 74 60 57 60 33 14 HURRICANE 6 17 28 29 10 1 X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 6 15 23 23 9 1 X HUR CAT 2 X 2 4 5 1 X X HUR CAT 3 X X 1 1 X X X HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X X HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 50KT 55KT 60KT 60KT 50KT 35KT 25KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) 3(17) X(17) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 2(16) X(16) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 2(10) X(10) CULIACAN 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 4(12) X(12) X(12) P VALLARTA 34 X 2( 2) 7( 9) 11(20) 4(24) X(24) X(24) P VALLARTA 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X 7( 7) 21(28) 10(38) 3(41) X(41) X(41) BARRA NAVIDAD 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) BARRA NAVIDAD 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) MANZANILLO 34 1 8( 9) 21(30) 6(36) 2(38) X(38) X(38) MANZANILLO 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) MANZANILLO 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) L CARDENAS 34 10 24(34) 3(37) X(37) 1(38) X(38) X(38) L CARDENAS 50 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ZIHUATANEJO 34 17 9(26) 2(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) ACAPULCO 34 5 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 16(19) 2(21) X(21) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) 10(21) X(21) X(21) ISLAS MARIAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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