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Tropical Storm ERICK Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6
2013-07-05 22:44:21| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI JUL 05 2013 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 052044 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM ERICK WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052013 2100 UTC FRI JUL 05 2013 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERICK WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 102.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X X 1 2 11 32 41 TROP DEPRESSION X 2 6 12 34 46 44 TROPICAL STORM 49 40 55 59 51 21 14 HURRICANE 52 58 38 28 5 1 X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 48 49 31 23 4 1 X HUR CAT 2 3 7 6 4 1 X X HUR CAT 3 X 2 1 1 X X X HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X X HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 65KT 70KT 65KT 60KT 45KT 30KT 25KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 20(30) X(30) X(30) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) CABO SAN LUCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 16(25) 1(26) X(26) SAN JOSE CABO 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 12(15) 1(16) X(16) LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CULIACAN 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) SAN BLAS 34 1 3( 4) 7(11) 4(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16) P VALLARTA 34 1 6( 7) 16(23) 4(27) 1(28) X(28) X(28) P VALLARTA 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 3 34(37) 14(51) 1(52) 1(53) X(53) X(53) BARRA NAVIDAD 50 X 4( 4) 7(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) BARRA NAVIDAD 64 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MANZANILLO 34 4 30(34) 8(42) X(42) 1(43) X(43) X(43) MANZANILLO 50 X 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) MANZANILLO 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) L CARDENAS 34 13 5(18) 1(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) ZIHUATANEJO 34 4 3( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) ACAPULCO 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 6(15) 1(16) X(16) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) ISLAS MARIAS 34 1 3( 4) 13(17) 12(29) 2(31) X(31) X(31) ISLAS MARIAS 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ISLAS MARIAS 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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