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Tropical Storm Ileana Forecast Discussion Number 9
2018-08-06 22:34:57| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Mon Aug 06 2018 223 WTPZ41 KNHC 062034 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Ileana Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112018 400 PM CDT Mon Aug 06 2018 There have been significant changes to the forecast reasoning for Ileana. Recent satellite imagery suggest that the system is being adversely affected by the large circulation of John much sooner than anticipated. In fact, Ileana is looking more like an outer band of John at this time. Nonetheless, a recent ASCAT overpass indicated that Ileana is still a separate system to the east-northeast of John and continues to support a current intensity of 55 kt. However given the evolution of Ileana today, the previous NHC short-term intensity forecast is reversed. Ileana is no longer predicted to become a hurricane, and the tropical cyclone is likely to dissipate or become absorbed by John's circulation in 24-36 hours. It should be noted that some models, such as the HWRF, GFS, and ECMWF depict Ileana's demise even sooner than that. Since the cloud pattern of Ileana has become rather disorganized, it is difficult to track a center and the initial motion is an uncertain 305/15 kt. The cyclone should move between a mid-level ridge and the circulation of John until dissipation. The official track forecast is a little left of the previous one, but a little to the right of the track model consensus. The 34- and 50-kt wind radii have been adjusted based on the scatterometer data. The hurricane watch for the southwest coast of Mexico is discontinued. The tropical storm watch for the extreme southern Baja California peninsula is also discontinued for Ileana, but a watch for this same general are may soon be required for John. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/2100Z 17.0N 103.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 07/0600Z 18.2N 105.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 07/1800Z 19.5N 109.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 08/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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