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Tropical Storm KEVIN Forecast Discussion Number 14
2015-09-04 04:32:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT THU SEP 03 2015 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 040232 TCDEP4 TROPICAL STORM KEVIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142015 800 PM PDT THU SEP 03 2015 Intense thunderstorms have been persisting near the center of Kevin during the past several hours, with outflow continuing especially in the cyclone's northern semicircle. Microwave data also show that the inner core of the storm is better defined than earlier today. The initial intensity is thus increased to 50 kt, a blend of the 45 kt classification from TAFB and the 55 kt one from SAB. The cyclone should reach its peak intensity in the next 12 hours or so while the shear remains low-to-moderate and waters are warm. Thereafter, the shear is forecast to strengthen and Kevin will encounter more marginal SSTs and dry mid-level air, which should cause weakening. The official forecast is a blend of the previous forecast and the intensity consensus. Degeneration into a remnant low in expected about 3 days due to a continuation of the higher shear, low moisture and cool water environment. Kevin is moving a little faster tonight, estimated at 360/8. Over the next day or so, while the system remains vertically intact, it should move generally northward around the southwest side of a mid- level ridge. Afterward, the weakening and increasingly shallow cyclone is likely to turn toward the northwest and west and be steered mainly by the low-level flow. Model guidance, however, is not in good agreement on when this leftward turn will occur, with almost all of the guidance delaying the turn a bit longer on this cycle, resulting in Kevin gaining more latitude. Because Kevin has now become a deeper cyclone, it makes sense to move the new NHC prediction north of the previous one given that Kevin should now take a little longer to become a more shallow cyclone. However, the new forecast still lies south of most of the guidance and the model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0300Z 19.7N 115.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 04/1200Z 20.8N 115.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 05/0000Z 22.0N 115.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 05/1200Z 22.7N 116.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 06/0000Z 23.3N 117.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 07/0000Z 23.5N 119.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
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