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Tropical Storm KIKO Forecast Discussion Number 4
2013-08-31 22:45:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT SAT AUG 31 2013 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 312044 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM KIKO DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112013 200 PM PDT SAT AUG 31 2013 SURPRISINGLY...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED THIS AFTERNOON AND IS NOW TROPICAL STORM KIKO. A RAGGED EYE HAS INTERMITTENTLY APPEARED IN THE CENTER OF A SMALL CDO IN THE VISIBLE IMAGERY...WHILE MICROWAVE IMAGERY FROM A 1714Z METOP-A AMSU PASS ALSO SHOWED A BANDING EYE DEVELOPING. HOWEVER...THE SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS AT 1800Z CAME IN QUITE LOW WITH INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF NEAR 35 KT. EVEN THE ADT ONLY SUGGESTED ABOUT 45 KT...AS THE EYE IS NOT YET DISTINCT IN THE INFRARED IMAGERY. BASED UPON THE RAPID RECENT DEVELOPMENT OBSERVED IN THE IMAGERY...THE INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 50 KT WITH A LARGER THAN USUAL AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY. THE RAGGED EYE ALLOWS FOR A RATHER CONFIDENT ASSESSMENT OF THE MOTION OF THE STORM AT 335/4. THE CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE AT THIS SLOW FORWARD SPEED FOR THE NEXT DAY AND A HALF OR SO...PRIMARILY DUE TO STEERING PROVIDED BY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE NORTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE. AS THE CYCLONE WINDS DOWN IN ABOUT TWO DAYS...IT MAY NEARLY STALL AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN VERY LIGHT LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE TRACK FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY DUE TO A SHIFT IN THE TVCE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. THE UNEXPECTED RAPID INTENSIFICATION MAY BE ASCRIBED TO THE LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM AND MOIST CONDITIONS THAT THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY EMBEDDED IN. HOWEVER...NONE OF OUR STATISTICAL NOR DYNAMICAL MODELS HAD A CLUE THAT THE SYSTEM WOULD INTENSIFY AS MUCH AS IT DID. GIVEN THE CURRENT TRENDS...ITS INTENSITY IS PREDICTED TO PEAK AS A HIGH END TROPICAL STORM...BUT EVEN A CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE IS NOT UNREALISTIC. COOLER SSTS AND A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE LIE ALONG THE PROJECTED PATH OF THE SYSTEM STARTING IN ABOUT A DAY AND A HALF...AND WEAKENING SHOULD COMMENCE THEN. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS WELL ABOVE ALL GUIDANCE DUE TO THE MUCH STRONGER INITIAL CONDITIONS. THE CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT THREE DAYS AND DISSIPATE IN ABOUT FOUR DAYS...WHILE REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 31/2100Z 19.3N 116.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 01/0600Z 20.1N 116.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 01/1800Z 21.0N 116.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 02/0600Z 21.7N 116.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 02/1800Z 22.1N 116.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 03/1800Z 22.3N 117.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 04/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA
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