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Tropical Storm KIKO Forecast Discussion Number 5
2013-09-01 04:40:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT SAT AUG 31 2013 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 010240 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM KIKO DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112013 800 PM PDT SAT AUG 31 2013 KIKO IS CONTINUING TO INTENSIFY AT A FAST PACE. MICROWAVE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE STORM HAS AN INNER CORE...AND EVEN THE LAST FEW VISIBLE IMAGES SUGGESTED A WEAK EYE FEATURE WITHIN A MORE SYMMETRICAL CDO. THE INTENSITY IS SET TO 60 KT...A BIT HIGHER THAN THE LATEST SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS...WHICH HAVE HAD A HARD TIME KEEPING UP WITH THIS CYCLONE. THE PACE OF STRENGTHENING SHOULD DIMINISH SOON AS KIKO IS MOVING ACROSS COOLING WATERS...AND WILL BE CROSSING THE 26C ISOTHERM WITHIN 12-24H. AFTER THAT TIME...A MORE STEADY DECREASE IN STRENGTH SEEMS PROBABLE DUE TO INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...COOLER WATERS...AND ENTRAINMENT OF DRY AIR ALOFT. THE LATEST NHC PREDICTION IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS...AND THE FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE. THE CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT THREE DAYS AND DISSIPATE IN ABOUT FOUR DAYS...CONSISTENT WITH THE GLOBAL MODEL SOLUTIONS. KIKO HAS BEEN SURPRISINGLY MOVING A BIT EAST OF NORTH DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...010/6. IT APPEARS TO BE ROTATING AROUND THE EAST SIDE OF A MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE THE STORM TO GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH AND NORTH-NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TAKEN A NOTABLE SHIFT TO THE EAST...AND THE NHC FORECAST IS SHIFTED EASTWARD BY 30-45 NMI AT MOST TIME PERIODS ON THIS PACKAGE. IN 36-48H...THE CYCLONE WILL LIKELY DECOUPLE VERTICALLY...AND THEN BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS IN LIGHT LOW-LEVEL FLOW. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/0300Z 20.0N 115.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 01/1200Z 20.8N 115.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 02/0000Z 21.6N 116.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 02/1200Z 22.2N 116.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 03/0000Z 22.3N 116.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 04/0000Z 22.2N 116.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 05/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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