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Tropical Storm KIKO Forecast Discussion Number 7
2013-09-01 16:35:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT SUN SEP 01 2013 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 011434 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM KIKO DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112013 800 AM PDT SUN SEP 01 2013 A TRMM MICROWAVE OVERPASS AT 1122Z INDICATED THAT KIKO POSSESSED A WELL-DEFINED MID-LEVEL EYE...BUT THERE WAS NO CLOSED LOW-LEVEL EYE BENEATH IT. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM A CIRA AMSU ESTIMATE OF 42 KT TO AS HIGH AS 72 KT FROM BOTH CIMSS AMSU AND ADT ESTIMATES. ALTHOUGH KIKO COULD HAVE BRIEFLY BEEN A HURRICANE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BEING MAINTAINED AT 60 KT...WHICH IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE T3.5/55 KT ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB. THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 360/06 KT. KIKO IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING NORTHWARD TODAY AND GRADUALLY SLOW DOWN BEFORE TURNING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WHILE THE CYCLONE WEAKENS AND MOVES AROUND THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW. AS KIKO WEAKENS AND BECOMES A MORE VERTICALLY SHALLOW SYSTEM...IT COULD GET TRAPPED AND BECOME STATIONARY IN THE WEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE-SCALE CYCLONIC GYRE THAT HAS BEEN A PERSISTENT FEATURE ACROSS THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK...AND LIES CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TVCE. KIKO IS STILL OVER SSTS NEAR 27C...BUT IT WILL BE MOVING OVER SUB-26C OCEAN TEMPERATURES WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO...WHICH SHOULD ACT TO INDUCE STEADY WEAKENING. ALTHOUGH THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS LOW...THE ENTRAINMENT OF DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE SHOULD ALSO HASTEN THE WEAKENING OF KIKO. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY 72 HOURS WHEN THE LOW- AND UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS DECOUPLE AFTER THE SYSTEM LOSES MOST...IF NOT ALL...OF ITS CONVECTION OVER 23-24C SSTS BY THAT TIME. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE TREND OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AS WELL AS THE SHIPS AND LGEM STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL INTENSITY MODELS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/1500Z 21.3N 115.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 02/0000Z 21.9N 115.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 02/1200Z 22.6N 116.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 03/0000Z 23.1N 116.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 03/1200Z 23.4N 116.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 04/1200Z 23.8N 116.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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