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Tropical Storm KIKO Forecast Discussion Number 9
2013-09-02 04:35:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT SUN SEP 01 2013 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 020235 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM KIKO DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112013 800 PM PDT SUN SEP 01 2013 DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH KIKO IS FADING...AND DVORAK DATA T-NUMBERS ARE COMING DOWN FAST. OUT OF RESPECT FOR THE EARLIER SCATTEROMETER DATA AND THE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY RULE...THE ADVISORY WIND SPEED IS SET...PERHAPS GENEROUSLY...AT 45 KT. KIKO IS MOVING OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS AND INTO A MORE STABLE AIR MASS. THESE FACTORS SHOULD CAUSE CONTINUED WEAKENING...AND THE SYSTEM WILL PROBABLY BECOME A DEPRESSION WITHIN 24 HOURS AND DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW IN 36 HOURS...OR SOONER. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS NOT FAR FROM THE MODEL CONSENSUS OR THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. LAST-LIGHT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE STORM HAS ALREADY TURNED TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS ABOUT 340/5. A WEAK MID- TO LOW-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE SHOULD MAINTAIN A NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WITH THE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO BECOME A SHALLOW CYCLONE IN A DAY OR SO...THE FORWARD SPEED IS LIKELY TO SLOW TO A CRAWL WITHIN THE WEAK LOW-LEVEL STEERING CURRENTS TO THE WEST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE LATEST DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS AND JUST A TAD TO THE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0300Z 22.5N 116.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 02/1200Z 23.1N 116.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 03/0000Z 23.5N 116.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 03/1200Z 23.9N 116.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 04/0000Z 24.1N 116.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 05/0000Z 24.2N 117.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 06/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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