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Tropical Storm LINDA Forecast Discussion Number 16
2015-09-09 22:45:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT WED SEP 09 2015 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 092044 TCDEP5 TROPICAL STORM LINDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152015 200 PM PDT WED SEP 09 2015 Linda continues to weaken, with the remaining deep convection becoming displaced from the low-level center due to southerly shear. The initial intensity is set to 60 kt based on a blend of the latest Dvorak Final-T and CI-numbers from TAFB and SAB. Further weakening is forecast due to cool waters and a dry, stable air mass along the track of Linda. Linda is forecast to weaken to a depression by 24 hours and become a remnant low by 36 hours. The new NHC intensity forecast is close to the latest IVCN intensity consensus aid. The initial motion estimate is 325/09, and microwave imagery suggests that the surface center of Linda is a little behind previous estimates as it begins to separate from the convection. Linda is forecast to continue moving northwestward around the southwestern periphery of a subtropical ridge for the next 24 to 36 hours. Then the remnant low of Linda should gradually turn westward and then southward in the low-level flow before dissipating in about 5 days. The new NHC track is along the previous one, but is a bit slower given the initial position and motion through 48 hours. After that time, a slower motion and faster southward turn is shown before dissipation, in agreement with the latest trends in the track guidance. Large swells from Linda are affecting the Pacific coast of the Baja California peninsula, and these swells are expected to reach southern California by Thursday. In addition, some of Linda's mid- and upper-level moisture is expected to spread northward into portions of the southwestern U.S. during the next day or two, which could trigger locally heavy rainfall. For additional information, please consult products issued by the NOAA Weather Prediction Center and your local NWS forecast office. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/2100Z 24.4N 117.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 10/0600Z 25.4N 118.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 10/1800Z 26.4N 119.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 11/0600Z 27.0N 120.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 11/1800Z 27.3N 120.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 12/1800Z 27.6N 122.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 13/1800Z 27.0N 122.5W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 14/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brennan
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