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Tropical Storm LINDA Forecast Discussion Number 17
2015-09-10 04:41:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT WED SEP 09 2015 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 100241 TCDEP5 TROPICAL STORM LINDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152015 800 PM PDT WED SEP 09 2015 Linda's weakening trend continues. Most of the convection with cloud tops of -45 to -55 deg C has now been displaced primarily into the northern quadrant deep due to moderate southerly vertical wind shear. The initial intensity of 55 kt is based on a consensus Dvorak CI-number of 3.5/55 kt from TAFB and SAB. The initial motion estimate is 320/08 kt. The NHC model guidance remains in fairy good agreement on Linda moving northwestward around the southwestern periphery of a subtropical ridge for the next 36 hours or so, followed by a gradual turn toward the west-northwest and west after that as the cyclone weakens into a shallow remnant low and is steered by the easterly trade wind flow. The official forecast track is essentially just an update and extension of the previous advisory track, and lies down the middle of the guidance envelope near the consensus model, TCVE. A comparison of low-level positions from microwave imagery with the visible and infrared location of the upper-level circulation clearly indicates that the surface and upper-level circulations continue to decouple. Linda is currently crossing the 24 deg C SST isotherm and is headed for 23 C water, so additional weakening is forecast as convection continues to wane due to rapidly worsening thermodynamic conditions. The cyclone is forecast to weaken to a depression within the next 24 hours and become a remnant low by 36 hours, if not sooner. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory and the IVCN intensity consensus model. Large swells from Linda are affecting the Pacific coast of the Baja California peninsula, and these swells are expected to reach southern California on Thursday. In addition, some of Linda's mid- and upper-level moisture is expected to spread northward into portions of the southwestern U.S. during the next day or two, which could trigger locally heavy rainfall. For additional information, please consult products issued by the NOAA Weather Prediction Center and your local NWS forecast office. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0300Z 25.0N 117.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 10/1200Z 25.8N 118.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 11/0000Z 26.6N 119.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 11/1200Z 27.1N 120.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 12/0000Z 27.3N 121.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 13/0000Z 27.4N 122.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 14/0000Z 26.8N 122.5W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 15/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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