je.st
news
Tropical Storm LINDA Forecast Discussion Number 3
2015-09-06 16:36:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT SUN SEP 06 2015 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 061436 TCDEP5 TROPICAL STORM LINDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152015 900 AM MDT SUN SEP 06 2015 Satellite images indicate that deep convection associated with the depression has been increasing during the last several hours and banding features are becoming better established on the west side of the circulation. The Dvorak classifications have increased to 3.0/45 kt from TAFB and 2.5/35 kt from SAB. The latest ADT value from CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin is 2.9/43 kt. Based on these data, the initial intensity is increased to 40 kt, making the system Tropical Storm Linda. Recent microwave images indicate that the center of Linda is located on the northeast side of the main area of convection due to northeasterly shear. This shear, however, is not expected to be strong enough to prevent strengthening while Linda remains embedded in a moist air mass and over 28-29 degree C waters during the next couple of days. After 48 hours, the atmosphere is expected to be drier and more stable near Linda and water temperatures lower along the forecast track. These conditions should halt intensification and result in a gradual weakening of the cyclone. The NHC intensity forecast is higher than the previous one and a little above the intensity model consensus, favoring the solutions of the SHIPS and LGEM models. Linda is moving northwestward at about 10 kt, steered by a mid-level high pressure system centered over northern Mexico and the southern United States. The ridge is expected to more or less remain in place during the next couple of days, which should keep Linda on the same general course. After that time, a slowdown is predicted as the ridge weakens some. The NHC track forecast has again been shifted a little to the north and is faster than the previous one, trending toward the latest guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/1500Z 14.1N 109.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 07/0000Z 15.5N 110.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 07/1200Z 17.3N 111.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 08/0000Z 19.0N 113.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 08/1200Z 20.3N 114.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 09/1200Z 22.2N 116.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 10/1200Z 23.9N 119.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 11/1200Z 25.0N 122.3W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
Tags: number
discussion
storm
linda
Category:Transportation and Logistics
Latest from this category |
All news |
||||||||||||||||||
|
|||||||||||||||||||