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Tropical Storm Michael Forecast Discussion Number 19
2018-10-11 10:49:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM EDT Thu Oct 11 2018 000 WTNT44 KNHC 110849 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Michael Discussion Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018 500 AM EDT Thu Oct 11 2018 Surface observations and WSR-88D Doppler radar data indicate that Michael continues to weaken as the center moves through eastern Georgia, and based on these data the initial intensity is decreased to 45 kt. There is currently a small area of tropical-storm-force winds near the center, with a second area over the Atlantic well to the southeast of the center. Michael should continue to weaken for the next 12 h or so as the center moves through South Carolina and into North Carolina. After that time, the cyclone should start to intensify due to baroclinic forcing, and it is expected to become a gale- or storm-force extratropical low around the 24-h point. The new intensity forecast is an update of the previous forecast, and it leans heavily on global model guidance during the extratropical phase. The initial motion is now 045/18. Michael will accelerate toward the northeast and east-northeast as it becomes further embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies. The new track forecast track is near the various consensus models and has no significant changes from the previous forecast. Gale- to storm-force winds are expected over portions of the Mid-Atlantic coast as Michael exits the U.S. east coast and becomes post-tropical. Non-tropical high wind watches, warnings, and advisories have been issued by local NWS offices for wind hazards in these areas north of Duck, North Carolina. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall from Michael could produce life-threatening flash flooding over portions of Georgia, the Carolinas, and southeastern Virginia. 2. Tropical storm conditions will continue to affect portions of the southeast U.S. coast from Georgia through North Carolina, and tropical storm warnings remain in effect for these areas. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/0900Z 33.5N 82.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 12H 11/1800Z 35.4N 79.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 24H 12/0600Z 37.9N 74.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 12/1800Z 40.9N 65.8W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 13/0600Z 44.1N 55.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 14/0600Z 48.0N 29.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 15/0600Z 49.0N 9.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 16/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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