je.st
news
Tag: discussion
Subtropical Storm Ana Forecast Discussion Number 2
2021-05-22 16:38:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Sat May 22 2021 000 WTNT41 KNHC 221438 TCDAT1 Subtropical Storm Ana Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012021 1100 AM AST Sat May 22 2021 Satellite imagery and radar data from Bermuda indicate that the central convection associated with Ana has changed little in organization during the past several hours, with a complex of small bands near the center at this time. The initial intensity will be held at 40 kt based on the latest intensity estimate from TAFB, although recently-received ASCAT data suggests this could be a little generous. Although the cyclone has some characteristics of a tropical cyclone, Ana remains a subtropical storm based on its position near the center of a large upper-level low pressure system and the current lack of anticyclonic upper-level outflow. The initial motion is 270/3. Ana and the large low it is embedded in are expected to turn northward later today as a developing mid-latitude cyclone over eastern Canada and the New England states erodes the subtropical ridge west of Ana. After that, the storm is expected to turn northeastward on the southeast side of the mid-latitude cyclone. The track guidance is in good agreement with this scenario, and the new track forecast is similar to, but a little slower than, the various consensus models. Little change in strength is expected for the next 12 h or so. After Ana recurves, a combination of increasing shear, dry air, and decreasing SSTs should cause the storm to gradually weaken tonight and Sunday. The large-scale models agree upon Ana opening up into a trough of low pressure in 36-48 h, and the official forecast shows this happening just after 48 h. The remnant trough will likely be absorbed by a cold front associated with the mid-latitude cyclone shortly thereafter. The Bermuda Weather Service has discontinued the Tropical Storm Watch for Bermuda. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/1500Z 34.3N 63.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 23/0000Z 34.8N 62.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 23/1200Z 35.8N 61.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 24/0000Z 37.2N 57.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 24/1200Z 39.7N 52.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
Tags: number
discussion
ana
storm
Subtropical Storm Ana Forecast Discussion Number 1
2021-05-22 10:32:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Sat May 22 2021 000 WTNT41 KNHC 220832 TCDAT1 Subtropical Storm Ana Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012021 500 AM AST Sat May 22 2021 Satellite images indicate that the low pressure system that is located a couple of hundred miles northeast of Bermuda has become better organized overnight. The low now has a well-defined center of circulation, some central deep convection, and thunderstorms that are organized in curved bands to the north and northeast of the center. The system is considered a subtropical cyclone rather than a tropical cyclone since it is still entangled with an upper-level low as evident in water vapor satellite images, but it does have some tropical characteristics as well. The initial intensity is estimated to be 40 kt, which makes the system Subtropical Storm Ana. Ana is moving slowly to the west-southwest with the initial motion estimated to be 240/3 kt. An even slower motion is expected later this morning, and Ana is forecast to meander through tonight while it remains embedded within the upper-level low in weak steering currents. However, a mid- to upper-level trough moving off of Atlantic Canada should cause Ana to turn northeastward thereafter and accelerate in that direction on Sunday and Monday. The NHC track forecast lies close to the HCCA and TVCA consensus models. Ana will likely change little in strength in the short term, but a combination of increasing shear, dry air, and decreasing SSTs should cause the storm to gradually weaken tonight and Sunday. Nearly all of the models show Ana opening up into a trough of low pressure in about 48 to 60 hours, and so does the NHC forecast. The remnant trough will likely be absorbed by a front shortly thereafter. The Bermuda Weather Service has a Tropical Storm Watch in effect for the island of Bermuda. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0900Z 34.2N 62.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 22/1800Z 34.3N 62.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 23/0600Z 35.1N 61.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 23/1800Z 36.2N 59.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 24/0600Z 37.9N 55.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
Tags: number
discussion
ana
storm
Post-Tropical Cyclone Andres Forecast Discussion Number 10
2021-05-11 16:38:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Tue May 11 2021 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 111438 TCDEP1 Post-Tropical Cyclone Andres Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012021 900 AM MDT Tue May 11 2021 Hostile environmental conditions have reduced Andres to an exposed, low-level cloud swirl. Although a small burst of convection was noted earlier this morning over 100 n mi northeast of the center, Andres has been without organized deep convection near its center for over 12 hours. Therefore, the cyclone has become a remnant low, and this will be the final NHC advisory on Andres. The remnant low is moving just south of due west and will continue moving westward within the low-level trade wind flow until it dissipates on Wednesday night. Overnight scatterometer data indicated that 20-25 kt winds were confined to the northwest quadrant of Andres, between the cyclone and a subtropical ridge to its northwest. Continued weakening is expected as the remnant low moves into a drier, more stable environment with increasing wind shear and decreasing sea-surface temperatures. This is the last NHC advisory on Andres. For additional information on the remnant low please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/1500Z 15.8N 111.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 12/0000Z 15.8N 112.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 12/1200Z 15.7N 113.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Brown
Tags: number
discussion
forecast
andres
Tropical Depression Andres Forecast Discussion Number 9
2021-05-11 10:34:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Tue May 11 2021 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 110834 TCDEP1 Tropical Depression Andres Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012021 300 AM MDT Tue May 11 2021 The harsh surrounding upper wind environment has taken a toll on Andres. The last few fragments of the depression's deep convection dissipated around 1000 PM MDT (0400 UTC) with the exposed center of Andres now traversing slightly cooler oceanic temperatures. The initial intensity has been reduced to 25 kt based on a 0343 UTC METOP-A scatterometer pass. The strong shear and decreasing SSTs are likely to cause Andres to become a remnant low later this morning and degenerate into a surface trough late Wednesday night. The depression is moving westward, or 270/6 kt while embedded in the low-level tradewind flow. Vertically shallow Andres and its remnants are expected to continue moving in this general direction until dissipation. The NHC track forecast is a little to the left of the previous one, and is close to the TVCE eastern Pacific consensus model. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/0900Z 15.9N 111.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 11/1800Z 15.9N 111.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 12/0600Z 15.9N 112.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 12/1800Z 15.8N 114.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts
Tags: number
discussion
tropical
depression
Tropical Depression Andres Forecast Discussion Number 8
2021-05-11 04:32:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT Mon May 10 2021 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 110232 TCDEP1 Tropical Depression Andres Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012021 900 PM MDT Mon May 10 2021 Andres is not expected to be a tropical cyclone much longer. Earlier today, strong west-southwesterly shear caused the thunderstorm activity to be stripped away from the center, and now Andres is nearly devoid of deep convection. The initial intensity is held at 30 kt based on a combination of the latest Dvorak estimates. Andres is expected to become a remnant low by Tuesday morning due to a combination of the continued strong shear and cooler SSTs along the forecast track. These hostile conditions should cause the remnant low to dissipate in a couple of days, which is shown by the GFS, ECMWF, and UKMET global models. After moving northwestward during the past day or two, Andres has now turned sharply to the west due to the decoupling of the low- and mid-level centers. A continued westward motion at about 5 kt is expected until the cyclone dissipates. This forecast is located to the south of the previous one due to the change in the initial motion. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/0300Z 15.9N 110.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 11/1200Z 16.0N 111.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 12/0000Z 16.1N 112.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 12/1200Z 16.1N 113.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
Tags: number
discussion
tropical
depression
Sites : [116] [117] [118] [119] [120] [121] [122] [123] [124] [125] [126] [127] [128] [129] [130] [131] [132] [133] [134] [135] next »