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Tropical Storm Dolores Forecast Discussion Number 4
2021-06-19 04:42:17| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Fri Jun 18 2021 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 190242 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Dolores Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042021 1000 PM CDT Fri Jun 18 2021 Deep convection has been trying to consolidate closer to the estimated center of Dolores over the past several hours, suggesting that the broad circulation of the cyclone may be starting to contract. The CIMSS ADT and SATCON indicated some strengthening since the previous advisory, which justified increasing the storm's intensity to 45 kt for the 0000 UTC intermediate advisory. The recent Dvorak intensity estimates from both TAFB and SAB are in agreement with this value, and therefore 45 kt will be this advisory's initial intensity. Dolores is moving to the northwest at 8 kt around the periphery of a mid-level ridge to its east. A turn to the north-northwest along with a slight increase in forward speed is expected to occur through Sunday morning. There is about 120 n mi of spread in the track guidance at 24 h, and with the cyclone's angle of approach to the coast of Mexico, a variation in the track produces a large difference in the coastlines potentially affected by Dolores. The westernmost guidance has the center of the cyclone clipping the coast just north of Manzanillo in about 24 h, while the easternmost solutions make landfall in about 18 h near Punta San Telmo. Overall, the guidance has shifted little this evening, and therefore the latest NHC track forecast is very near the previous one, which lies near the various multi-model track consensus. This track would take the center of Dolores across the coast between Punta San Telmo and Manzanillo early Saturday afternoon. The surrounding environmental conditions are favorable for Dolores to continue to strengthen, with the main inhibiting factor being the broad circulation as indicated by an ASCAT overpass earlier this afternoon. Dolores is currently forecast to peak at an intensity of 55 kt by late Saturday morning before making landfall. How much the circulation consolidates over the next 12-18 h will likely determine if the peak intensity of Dolores prior to landfall is higher or lower than indicated. After landfall, Dolores should rapidly weaken over the rugged terrain of western Mexico, with the guidance in good agreement on dissipating the cyclone by Sunday morning. Other than indicating an earlier dissipation, the new NHC intensity forecast has changed little from the previous one. Key Messages: 1. Dolores is expected to continue strengthening tonight and early on Saturday, and it could be near hurricane strength when it reaches the coast of west-central Mexico by Saturday afternoon. A tropical storm warning and a hurricane watch are in effect for portions of the southwestern and west-central coasts of Mexico. 2. Heavy rains are forecast over coastal sections of the Mexican states of Oaxaca, Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, Jalisco, and Nayarit during the next few days, which could result in life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0300Z 16.3N 102.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 19/1200Z 17.6N 103.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 20/0000Z 20.0N 104.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 36H 20/1200Z 22.6N 104.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 48H 21/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Three Forecast Discussion Number 5
2021-06-18 22:34:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Fri Jun 18 2021 000 WTNT43 KNHC 182033 TCDAT3 Potential Tropical Cyclone Three Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032021 400 PM CDT Fri Jun 18 2021 A few hours ago, an ASCAT-A pass indicated that maximum winds were about 40 kt well east of the ill-defined center of circulation, and the initial wind speed was increased to that value at the intermediate advisory at 18Z. Recent surface observations just offshore of southeastern Louisiana have been reporting maximum winds between 30 and 40 kt. Based on a combination of these data, and since the structure of the system has not changed much during the past few hours, the initial intensity is held at 40 kt for this advisory. Although the disturbance has wind speeds of tropical storm intensity, it has not been named a tropical storm yet since its center is ill defined and broad as evident in the Air Force Hurricane Hunter data and surface observations. Regardless of its status, heavy rains and tropical-storm-force winds are spreading across portions of the northern Gulf coast, and these conditions will spread inland through tonight. There has not been much change to the track forecast reasoning. The cyclone is moving northward at about 14 kt, and a general north to north-northeast motion is expected through landfall, which is likely to occur overnight or early Saturday morning. After the system moves inland, a turn to the northeast and then east-northeast across the southeast U.S. is predicted when the cyclone becomes embedded in the westerlies on the north side of the subtropical ridge. The models remain in relatively good agreement, and only small changes were made to the previous track forecast. There is some opportunity for a little strengthening during the next 6 to 12 hours before the system makes landfall. However, significant intensification is not expected due to the cyclone's broad and asymmetric structure, and ongoing west-southwesterly vertical wind shear. After landfall, weakening is forecast, and dissipation is still predicted to occur by 72 hours. However, it should be noted that the ECMWF and UKMET models hold onto the vortex for a while longer. Given the current and anticipated structure of this system, users should not focus on the exact track of the center, as rainfall and wind hazards are likely to extend well east of the center. Key Messages: 1. The system is expected to produce heavy rainfall and considerable flash, urban and small stream flooding tonight and through the weekend along the Central Gulf coast. Flood impacts will spread northeastward into the Southern Appalachians. 2. Tropical storm conditions have begun along portions of the central Gulf Coast from east of Morgan City, Louisiana, to the Okaloosa/Walton County line, Florida, including New Orleans. These winds will spread inland and continue into Saturday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/2100Z 27.9N 91.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 19/0600Z 29.5N 90.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 24H 19/1800Z 31.4N 89.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 36H 20/0600Z 32.8N 87.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 48H 20/1800Z 33.8N 84.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 60H 21/0600Z 34.7N 81.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Three Forecast Discussion Number 4
2021-06-18 17:10:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Fri Jun 18 2021 000 WTNT43 KNHC 181510 CCA TCDAT3 Potential Tropical Cyclone Three Discussion Number 4...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032021 1000 AM CDT Fri Jun 18 2021 Corrected second Key Message The cyclone is gradually becoming better organized. Deep convection has increased during the past several hours, but it remains confined to the east side of the circulation due to about 20 kt of west-southwesterly wind shear. The Air Force Hurricane Hunters have been investigating the system and they found a surface center a little to the east of where we previously expected it to be, but have otherwise reported generally light winds. Based on surrounding surface observations and the aircraft data, the initial intensity is held at 30 kt for this advisory. The leading edge of the rain is just reaching portions of the northern Gulf coast, and conditions will continue to deteriorate there through tonight. The broad disturbance is moving north-northeastward at about 12 kt into a weakness in the subtropical ridge. This motion should continue during the next 12 to 24 hours, taking the center of the cyclone to the coast of southeastern Louisiana overnight or on Saturday morning. After landfall, a turn to the right across the southeast U.S. is expected when the system becomes embedded in the westerly flow on the north side of the ridge. The models are in good agreement, and the NHC track forecast is a little to the east of the previous one based on the initial position and motion. Although the system will likely become a tropical storm later today or tonight, significant strengthening is not expected due to its broad and asymmetric structure, ongoing west-southwesterly shear, and limited time over the Gulf of Mexico waters. The models are in quite good agreement overall, and the NHC intensity forecast lies near the HCCA and IVCN consensus aids. It should be noted that the cyclone could be a little stronger at landfall than shown below since that is expected to occur between the 12- and 24-h forecast times. Given the current and anticipated structure of this system, users should not focus on the exact track of the center, as rainfall and wind hazards are likely to extend well east of the center and arrive well in advance of landfall. Key Messages: 1. The system is expected to produce heavy rainfall, considerable flash, urban and small stream flooding beginning today and continuing through the weekend along the Central Gulf coast. Flood impacts will spread northeastward into the Southern Appalachians. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin later today in areas near and well to the east of the center along portions of the central Gulf Coast from east of Morgan City, Louisiana, to the Okaloosa/Walton County line, Florida, including New Orleans. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/1500Z 26.5N 91.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 19/0000Z 28.2N 90.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 24H 19/1200Z 30.3N 90.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 36H 20/0000Z 32.1N 88.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 48H 20/1200Z 33.4N 86.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 60H 21/0000Z 34.5N 83.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 21/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm Dolores Forecast Discussion Number 2
2021-06-18 16:49:46| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Fri Jun 18 2021 464 WTPZ44 KNHC 181449 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Dolores Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042021 1000 AM CDT Fri Jun 18 2021 Recent SSMIS microwave imagery indicates that convective banding continues to become established to the north and west of the cyclone's center, while the overall area of deep convection is gradually expanding. Dvorak satellite classifications have increased to T2.0/30 kt from TAFB and T2.3/35 kt from SAB, and the depression is therefore being upgraded to a tropical storm with maximum winds of 35 kt. Dolores is moving toward the west-northwest (285/9 kt), to the south of a weak mid-level ridge which extends from the northwestern Caribbean Sea to central Mexico. Since Dolores is now reaching the western extent of this ridge, the storm is expected to turn northwestward and then north-northwestward around the ridge later today and into Saturday, reaching the coast of Colima or Jalisco by Saturday evening. The track models agree on this general scenario, although there is some spread on exactly where and if the center makes landfall. The GFS and HWRF models show a sharper turn toward the north, with the center moving inland near or south of the Manzanillo area, while the ECMWF and UKMET models depict a wider sweeping turn, keeping the center near or just off the coast in the vicinity of Cabo Corrientes. The updated NHC track forecast is between these two scenarios, near the TVCE and HCCA consensus aids, depicting a potential landfall along the Colima or Jalisco coasts Saturday evening. The new NHC track forecast is not too different than the previous forecast, although it does show Dolores reaching the coast a little sooner than previously expected. Additional strengthening is anticipated up until Dolores's potential landfall due to very warm sea surface temperatures (29 to 30 degrees Celsius), a moist environment, and significant upper-level divergence. The intensity models agree on this strengthening, although since several of the track models already have Dolores inland by 36 hours (which the NHC official forecast does not), they're showing the cyclone's intensity too low at that time. The NHC intensity forecast is close to the HCCA consensus aid through 24 hours, but then it is above all of the guidance at 36 hours in order to show at least some additional strengthening before Dolores reaches the coast. Based on this forecast, Dolores is expected to be near or just below hurricane strength when it reaches the coast. This new forecast necessitates the issuance of a tropical storm warning and a hurricane watch for a portion of the west-central coast of Mexico. Depending on the amount of land interaction after 36 hours, Dolores is expected to weaken fast as it continues moving northward along the west-central coast of Mexico. Key Messages: 1. Dolores is expected to continue strengthening today and on Saturday, and it could be near hurricane strength when it reaches the coast of west-central Mexico by Saturday evening. A tropical storm warning and a hurricane watch are now in effect for portions of the southwestern and west-central coasts of Mexico. 2. Heavy rains are forecast over coastal sections of the Mexican states of Oaxaca, Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, Jalisco, and Nayarit during the next few days, which could result in life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/1500Z 14.7N 102.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 19/0000Z 15.3N 103.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 19/1200Z 16.8N 104.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 20/0000Z 19.2N 105.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 20/1200Z 22.1N 105.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 60H 21/0000Z 24.4N 106.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 72H 21/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Depression Four-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
2021-06-18 10:59:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Fri Jun 18 2021 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 180859 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Four-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042021 400 AM CDT Fri Jun 18 2021 Over the past 12 h convection has blossomed and has become better organized over the broad low we have been monitoring a couple hundred miles to the south of Acapulco, Mexico. Overnight scatterometer-derived winds indicated that the system has acquired a closed circulation with max winds in the northeast quadrant of 30 kt. The most recent 06z Dvorak satellite estimates were T1.5/25 kt from TAFB and T2.0/30 kt from SAB. Since that time, deep cold convection has continued to increase near the estimated center with improved banding both the north and southwest quadrants. Due to this continued improvement in satellite imagery, this system is being upgraded to a 30-kt tropical depression this advisory. Environmental conditions appear to be favorable for additional intensification over the next 24-36 h as the storm reaches the Mexican coastline with high mid-level relative humidity, only light to moderate vertical wind shear, and very warm sea-surface temperatures between 29 to 30 C. Thus the latest NHC forecast indicates at least steady intensification, and TD4-E could become a strong tropical storm as it approaches the Mexican coastline. The NHC intensity forecast is in good agreement with the HFIP corrected consensus (HCCA) guidance. The estimated current motion of this depression is at 285/7 kt. Currently the system is being steered by a narrow mid-level ridge north of Mexico. However, this ridge is forecast to weaken and allow the storm to gain latitude over the next 24-36 h. The latest NHC forecast takes the depression to the coast of Mexico by late Saturday. This forecast is in fairly good agreement with the latest guidance and lies closest to the most recent ECMWF run, though spread remains between models that keep the system just off the Mexican coast like the UKMET versus the HWRF and GFS models which take the storm further east and inland over Mexico sooner. Given this track forecast, the government of Mexico has issued a tropical storm watch for the coast of Mexico from Cabo Corrientes southward to Lazaro Cardenas. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0900Z 14.4N 101.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 18/1800Z 14.8N 102.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 19/0600Z 15.7N 103.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 19/1800Z 17.5N 104.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 20/0600Z 20.1N 105.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 60H 20/1800Z 23.1N 105.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 72H 21/0600Z 25.4N 106.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 96H 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin/Blake
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