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Tropical Depression Carlos Forecast Discussion Number 14
2021-06-16 04:37:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 500 PM HST Tue Jun 15 2021 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 160236 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Carlos Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032021 500 PM HST Tue Jun 15 2021 Carlos continues to produce small, short-lived bursts of convection near its center this evening. While this limited convection lacks significant organization, it remains just active enough to hold onto Carlos as a sheared tropical cyclone. The initial intensity is set at 30 kt, which is consistent with several earlier ASCAT passes that showed 25-30 kt winds in the northwest quadrant of the cyclone. The depression continues moving just south of due west, or 260/07 kt. A gradual westward to west-northwestward turn is expected during the next day or so as Carlos moves around the southern periphery of a low- to mid-level ridge. Although sea-surface temperatures remain warm enough along the forecast track to support more brief convective pulses, 20-25 kt of westerly shear and limited mid-level moisture will inhibit any organized convective development. Carlos will move into a more subsident environment by 24 h, which should seal its fate as it degenerates to a remnant low. The vortex is expected to gradually spin down thereafter, and it should dissipate by late this week. The latest NHC forecast is largely an update of the previous one and lies near the latest multi-model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0300Z 9.6N 134.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 16/1200Z 9.5N 135.2W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 17/0000Z 9.4N 136.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 17/1200Z 9.5N 137.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 18/0000Z 9.8N 138.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 18/1200Z 10.0N 140.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Beven
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Bill Forecast Discussion Number 7
2021-06-16 04:34:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Tue Jun 15 2021 000 WTNT42 KNHC 160233 TCDAT2 Post-Tropical Cyclone Bill Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022021 1100 PM AST Tue Jun 15 2021 Satellite imagery indicates that Bill has become extratropical over the north Atlantic. A partial scatterometer overpass showed 35-40 kt winds to the east-southeast of the center, so the initial intensity is lowered to a possibly generous 45 kt. The extratropical low should continue to weaken and move quickly toward the northeast until it weakens to a trough between 12-24 h. This is the last advisory on Bill by the National Hurricane Center. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0300Z 43.5N 57.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 12H 16/1200Z 46.5N 53.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 17/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Depression Carlos Forecast Discussion Number 13
2021-06-15 22:40:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Tue Jun 15 2021 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 152039 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Carlos Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032021 200 PM PDT Tue Jun 15 2021 Dry, stable air and strong southwesterly shear continue to take their toll on Carlos. The only deep convection associated with the depression consists of a very small cluster just south of the center, and another about 90 n mi northwest of the center. This meager amount of shower activity is not sufficient to be considered organized deep convection. Therefore if no significant convection develops soon, then Carlos will be declared a remnant low. Despite the lack of convection, a pair recent ASCAT overpasses showed several wind vectors of 27-30 kt, so the initial intensity remains 30 kt for this advisory. The environment surrounding the depression is not forecast to improve, so the vortex should gradually spin down, with dissipation expected within a few days. Carlos is moving just south of due west at 8 kt. This general motion is expected to continue for the remainder of the cyclone's existence, except for perhaps a slight decrease in forward speed and turn to the right, as the system is steered by a low- to mid-level ridge to its north. The latest NHC track forecast is little changed from the previous one and lies near the multi-model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/2100Z 9.8N 133.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 16/0600Z 9.6N 134.6W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 16/1800Z 9.4N 135.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 17/0600Z 9.5N 137.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 17/1800Z 9.7N 138.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 18/0600Z 10.0N 139.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Depression Carlos Forecast Discussion Number 12
2021-06-15 16:33:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Tue Jun 15 2021 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 151433 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Carlos Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032021 800 AM PDT Tue Jun 15 2021 Several hours ago there was a burst of deep convection near the center of Carlos. Although cloud tops are beginning to warm, this convection gave Carlos a little more time as a tropical cyclone. There has been no new ASCAT data since early yesterday to confirm the strength of the cyclone's winds, and so the initial intensity is set at a somewhat uncertain 30 kt for this advisory, which is in agreement with the CIMSS ADT. Carlos has begun to turn back to the west and is now on a heading of 260/9 kt. This general motion, except for perhaps a slight decrease in forward speed is expected for the remainder of the cyclone's existence, as it is steered by a low- to mid-level ridge to its north. The latest NHC track forecast is little changed from the previous one and lies near the multi-model consensus. Dry and stable air along with strong vertical wind shear that have been disrupting the depression's convection will continue to affect the cyclone for the foreseeable future. Due to the warm underlying waters, there still may be some short-lived convective bursts near the center of Carlos over the next couple of days. In about 2 days, the shear vector will shift from southwest to northwest as an upper trough north of the depression shifts east. This subsident pattern should put an end to any chances for organized deep convection to return. The NHC forecast calls for Carlos to degenerate into a remnant low by 24 h. However, that timing is uncertain, and Carlos could remain a tropical cyclone until the upper-level flow shifts in a couple of days. Once a remnant low, the system should dissipate within a day or two. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/1500Z 10.0N 132.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 16/0000Z 9.8N 133.9W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 16/1200Z 9.7N 135.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 17/0000Z 9.7N 136.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 17/1200Z 9.7N 138.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 18/0000Z 9.9N 139.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Depression Carlos Forecast Discussion Number 11
2021-06-15 11:16:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Tue Jun 15 2021 904 WTPZ43 KNHC 150858 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Carlos Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032021 200 AM PDT Tue Jun 15 2021 Organized deep convection has dissipated once again near the low-level center of Carlos, thanks to a combination of very dry, stable mid-level air and increasing southwesterly vertical wind shear. A blend of the latest subjective and objective intensity estimates supports maintaining the current intensity of 30-kt for this advisory, though this may be somewhat generous given the highest wind retrieval from a partial 0459 UTC ASCAT-A pass was only 26 kt. Carlos is continuing to move steadily to the west-southwest at 245/10 kt. This current motion should continue for the next day or so followed by a gradual bend westward as the shallow cyclone becomes increasingly steered by a large poleward low-level ridge over the north Pacific. The latest NHC track is once again a bit faster and slightly south of the previous forecast, but remains in agreement with the multi-model consensus. The continued combination of very dry 40-45 percent relative humidity and 25-30 kts of southwesterly vertical wind shear will ultimately lead to Carlos' demise, despite the cyclone traversing sufficently warm 27-28 C sea-surface temperatures. Now that convection has dissipated again near the center, without another resurgence, it is only a matter of time before the cyclone degenerates into a remnant low. Investigating simulated satellite forecasts from global model (GFS, ECMWF, CMC) and regional hurricane model (HWRF) output suggests that any additional convective bursts will quickly shear off to the east and not be sufficently organized to maintain the cyclone's identity. Therefore, Carlos is expected to become a remnant low in 24 h, but could occur as soon as this afternoon if convection does not return soon. The remnant low will continue to slowly spin down, likely opening up into a trough by 72 h. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0900Z 10.1N 131.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 15/1800Z 9.6N 133.1W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 16/0600Z 9.5N 134.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 16/1800Z 9.5N 135.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 17/0600Z 9.5N 137.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 17/1800Z 9.7N 138.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 18/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin/Stewart
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