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Hurricane Leslie Forecast Discussion Number 31
2018-10-04 04:33:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Wed Oct 03 2018 768 WTNT43 KNHC 040233 TCDAT3 Hurricane Leslie Discussion Number 31 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018 1100 PM AST Wed Oct 03 2018 It is difficult to add more to the discussion about a cyclone that has moved very little during the past few days and has not changed significantly in structure either. Leslie's cloud pattern is not very impressive with a large ragged-eye feature (if you can call that an eye) surrounded by weaker convection than earlier today. Although Dvorak numbers are lower tonight, we can still hold the intensity at 70 kt in this advisory. Most likely, the convection will reinvigorate tonight, but no important changes in intensity are anticipated during the next 24 hours or so. A weakening trend is expected thereafter as the cyclone reaches cooler waters. Leslie has begun to move northward at about 7 kt, and most likely the cyclone will continue on that track for the next two days. By then, Leslie will encounter the mid-latitude westerlies and this flow will force the cyclone to make a sharp turn to the east. Track models are in remarkably good agreement with the initial northward turn and with eastward turn. However, during the last portion of the forecast models diverge, and the confidence in the track forecast is not very high. Large swells generated by Leslie are expected to continue during the next few days across the southeastern coast of the United States, Bermuda, the Bahamas, and the Greater and Lesser Antilles. These swells will also begin to increase near the coasts of New England and Atlantic Canada on Friday. Please consult products from your local weather office as these conditions could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0300Z 30.6N 57.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 04/1200Z 32.0N 57.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 05/0000Z 34.2N 57.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 05/1200Z 36.0N 57.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 06/0000Z 37.0N 57.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 07/0000Z 36.5N 56.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 08/0000Z 36.5N 53.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 09/0000Z 35.5N 50.0W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Avila
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Hurricane Sergio Forecast Discussion Number 18
2018-10-03 22:45:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Wed Oct 03 2018 835 WTPZ41 KNHC 032045 TCDEP1 Hurricane Sergio Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018 200 PM PDT Wed Oct 03 2018 Sergio's satellite presentation continues to look impressive this afternoon. Several mesovortices can be identified rotating within the eye. However, the eye is somewhat obscured by upper-level clouds and the eyewall edge is not clearly defined. Based on a blend of subjective Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB, the advisory intensity estimate is held at 110 kt, which is the same as in the previous advisory. Sergio should remain in quite favorable atmospheric and oceanic conditions for the next day or two, and additional strengthening is expected through Thursday. By Friday, Sergio will be moving over slightly cooler sea-surface temperatures and through a drier mid-level air mass, which should initiate gradual weakening. Sergio is currently heading toward the northwest, or 305/8 kt. By Friday and Saturday, the storm is forecast to slow and turn west-northwestward to westward while a mid-level ridge builds to the north and northwest of the hurricane. The official track forecast lies close to the equally weighted dynamical model consensus, TVCN. It is of interest to note that a small disturbance currently located a few hundred n mi to the west-southwest of Sergio is expected to be drawn into the larger circulation of the hurricane overnight. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/2100Z 13.3N 117.9W 110 KT 125 MPH 12H 04/0600Z 14.1N 118.8W 120 KT 140 MPH 24H 04/1800Z 15.2N 120.1W 120 KT 140 MPH 36H 05/0600Z 15.8N 121.2W 115 KT 130 MPH 48H 05/1800Z 16.1N 122.4W 105 KT 120 MPH 72H 06/1800Z 15.8N 124.9W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 07/1800Z 15.6N 127.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 08/1800Z 16.4N 129.2W 75 KT 85 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Hurricane Leslie Forecast Discussion Number 30
2018-10-03 22:36:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Wed Oct 03 2018 447 WTNT43 KNHC 032035 TCDAT3 Hurricane Leslie Discussion Number 30 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018 500 PM AST Wed Oct 03 2018 The satellite presentation of Leslie has changed little over the past six hours. Leslie continues to have a large ragged eye with periodic intrusions of slightly drier air. The hurricane still has well-defined outflow over the northern semicircle. The initial wind speed is held at 70 kt based on the steady state appearance. Now that Leslie that has begun its advertised northward turn, it is passing over the cool wake that it presumably created during the past day or so, therefore, little change in strength is expected through this evening. However, some slight strengthening is possible later tonight and Thursday after crossing the cool wake. Gradual weakening then is expected to begin late Thursday when the system reaches cooler waters farther to the north. The NHC intensity forecast is an update of the previous one and near the middle of the guidance envelope. Satellite images indicate that Leslie is moving northward, and this motion appears to be accelerating. This northward motion is expected to continue through Friday as the hurricane moves in the flow between a shortwave trough to the northwest and a mid-level ridge to its southeast. After that time, an eastward motion is forecast when a second trough approaches Leslie from the north. The latest model guidance has shifted a little to the west in the short term and is slightly slower and farther south at the latter forecast points. The NHC official track forecast has been adjusted accordingly to trend toward this guidance. Large swells generated by Leslie are expected to continue during the next few days across the southeastern coast of the United States, Bermuda, the Bahamas, and the Greater and Lesser Antilles. These swells will also begin to increase near the coasts of New England and Atlantic Canada on Friday. Please consult products from your local weather office as these conditions could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/2100Z 29.9N 56.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 04/0600Z 30.7N 57.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 04/1800Z 32.7N 57.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 05/0600Z 34.7N 57.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 05/1800Z 36.1N 57.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 06/1800Z 36.8N 56.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 07/1800Z 36.7N 53.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 08/1800Z 36.0N 49.5W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi/Onderlinde
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Hurricane Leslie Forecast Discussion Number 29
2018-10-03 16:33:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Wed Oct 03 2018 368 WTNT43 KNHC 031432 TCDAT3 Hurricane Leslie Discussion Number 29 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018 1100 AM AST Wed Oct 03 2018 Leslie continues to slowly strengthen. Satellite images indicate that the deep convection has been gradually increasing in coverage and become more symmetric around the large ragged eye of the hurricane. An average of the latest Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB support increasing the initial wind speed to 70 kt. Leslie still has a little more time to strengthen as it should remain over waters warmer than 26 deg C and in favorable atmospheric conditions for about another day. Thereafter, the hurricane is expected to move over progressively cooler water, which should induce a slow weakening trend. The NHC intensity forecast lies closest to the IVCN and HCCA consensus aids. The hurricane has come to a stall, as expected, in very weak steering currents. The combination of a shortwave trough moving off the New England coast and a building ridge to the southeast of Leslie should cause the hurricane to begin moving northward this evening. This motion with an increase in forward speed should continue through Friday. By the weekend, the hurricane is expected to turn to the east due to a broad trough over the north Atlantic. The models remain in very good agreement, and little change was made to the previous NHC forecast track. Large swells generated by Leslie are expected to increase over the next day or two across the southeastern coast of the United States, Bermuda, the Bahamas, and the Greater and Lesser Antilles. These swells will also begin to increase near the coasts of New England and Atlantic Canada on Friday. Please consult products from your local weather office as these conditions could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/1500Z 29.5N 56.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 04/0000Z 30.0N 56.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 04/1200Z 31.6N 56.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 05/0000Z 33.9N 57.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 05/1200Z 35.6N 57.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 06/1200Z 36.9N 56.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 07/1200Z 37.0N 54.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 08/1200Z 36.7N 49.8W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Hurricane Sergio Forecast Discussion Number 17
2018-10-03 16:32:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Wed Oct 03 2018 262 WTPZ41 KNHC 031432 TCDEP1 Hurricane Sergio Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018 800 AM PDT Wed Oct 03 2018 Sergio has intensified this morning, with the eye becoming better defined while embedded in very cold cloud tops. The upper-level outflow is restricted to the northeast of the hurricane, but strong over the southern part of the circulation. Using a blend of objective and subjective Dvorak estimates, the advisory intensity estimate is 110 kt. Sergio will remain over warm waters of nearly 29 deg C, with moderate shear and a humid mid-level air mass for the next day or so. Thus, some additional strengthening is forecast in the short term. In a couple of days, slightly cooler waters and some entrainment of dry air is likely to cause a gradual weakening trend to begin. The NHC forecast is at the high end of the intensity model guidance, and shows Sergio remaining a hurricane throughout the entire forecast period. The hurricane has turned toward the northwest, and is now moving at about 305/9 kt. This turn is probably being caused by a weakness in the mid-level ridge associated with a trough nearing southern California. As the trough moves away from the area, the global models predict that a ridge will rebuild to the north of Sergio in a couple of days. This should result in a turn toward the west-northwest and west at 48 hours and beyond. The official track forecast is close to the simple and corrected dynamical model consensus predictions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/1500Z 12.9N 117.3W 110 KT 125 MPH 12H 04/0000Z 13.6N 118.3W 120 KT 140 MPH 24H 04/1200Z 14.7N 119.6W 120 KT 140 MPH 36H 05/0000Z 15.6N 120.9W 120 KT 140 MPH 48H 05/1200Z 16.2N 122.0W 110 KT 125 MPH 72H 06/1200Z 16.3N 124.5W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 07/1200Z 16.3N 127.2W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 08/1200Z 17.0N 130.0W 85 KT 100 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch
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