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Hurricane Sergio Forecast Discussion Number 14

2018-10-02 22:32:21| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 PM PDT Tue Oct 02 2018 283 WTPZ41 KNHC 022032 TCDEP1 Hurricane Sergio Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018 200 PM PDT Tue Oct 02 2018 Sergio has intensified significantly today. The eye of the hurricane has become better defined, and is embedded in very cold convective cloud tops. Outer banding features are also well defined. Upper-tropospheric outflow is strong over the western and southern portions of the circulation, and a little restricted to the northeast. The advisory intensity is set, probably conservatively, to 100 kt in agreement with a Dvorak estimate from SAB. Only modest northeasterly shear is expected to affect Sergio over the next few days. That, along with warm waters and a very moist middle troposphere, should be conducive for further strengthening. The official forecast is near the upper end of the intensity guidance model suite. The system continues moving mostly westward, or 280/11 kt. There is little change to the track forecast reasoning from the previous couple of advisory packages. A mid-level ridge to the north of Sergio should weaken within the next 12 to 24 hours as a broad trough drops in from the northwest. These changes in the steering flow should cause the hurricane to turn toward the west-northwest by this evening or tonight, and to begin moving northwestward on Wednesday. The official track forecast is is very similar to the previous one and, again, follows the latest multi-model consensus. Some slight enlargements to the wind radii were made over the eastern semicircle of Sergio based on scatterometer data. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/2100Z 11.2N 115.1W 100 KT 115 MPH 12H 03/0600Z 12.0N 116.3W 115 KT 130 MPH 24H 03/1800Z 13.1N 117.8W 120 KT 140 MPH 36H 04/0600Z 14.2N 119.1W 120 KT 140 MPH 48H 04/1800Z 15.2N 120.5W 115 KT 130 MPH 72H 05/1800Z 16.3N 123.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 06/1800Z 16.5N 126.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 07/1800Z 16.5N 128.5W 80 KT 90 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch

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Remnants of Rosa Forecast Discussion Number 30

2018-10-02 16:34:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 900 AM MDT Tue Oct 02 2018 761 WTPZ45 KNHC 021434 TCDEP5 Remnants Of Rosa Discussion Number 30 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202018 900 AM MDT Tue Oct 02 2018 Satellite images and surface observations indicate that Rosa has become an elongated trough with multiple swirls along its axis. Therefore, Rosa no longer qualifies as a tropical cyclone, and this is the last advisory issued on this system by the National Hurricane Center. The initial intensity is lowered to 25 kt assuming some decrease in winds from the ASCAT pass last night. Although Rosa has dissipated, heavy rainfall and life-threatening flash flooding are expected to continue over portions of northwestern Mexico and the Desert Southwest during the next day or so. For more information on the rainfall threat, please see products from your local NWS forecast office and Storm Summary products issued by the Weather Prediction Center at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc1.html FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/1500Z 29.7N 114.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...REMNANTS 12H 03/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

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Tropical Storm Leslie Forecast Discussion Number 25

2018-10-02 16:33:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM AST Tue Oct 02 2018 104 WTNT43 KNHC 021433 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018 1100 AM AST Tue Oct 02 2018 Leslie has generally changed little during the past several hours. The storm continues to have a ragged banded eye feature with multiple mesovortices within it. Deep convection is most organized in a curved band that currently wraps from the northeast to southwest quadrant of the storm. The initial intensity is held at 55 kt, which is near the high end of the satellite estimates. Although the storm has not strengthened much during the past day or so, it still has an opportunity to intensify while it moves over slightly higher SSTs and remains in favorable atmospheric conditions during the next day or two. Beyond a couple of days, slow weakening seems likely as Leslie heads over SSTs cooler than 26 deg C and into a slightly drier environment. The NHC intensity forecast is the same as the previous one, and it is in good agreement with the HCCA and IVCN consensus aids. This intensity forecast lies between the aggressive statistical-dynamical models and the lower HMON and COAMPS-TC models that keep Leslie below hurricane strength. The tropical storm continues to lose latitude, with the latest initial motion estimate being 215/7. A continued slow south to south-southwest motion is forecast during the next 24 hours as the system moves in the flow on the east side of a mid-level high. After that time, the combination of a shortwave trough to the west and an amplifying mid-level ridge to the southeast should cause Leslie to move northward to north-northeastward late this week. By the weekend, the models suggest that Leslie should turn eastward when it moves in the mid-latitude westerlies. The NHC track forecast is nudged to the west to come into better agreement with the latest models. Large swells generated by Leslie are expected to increase tomorrow and Thursday across the southeastern coast of the United States, Bermuda, the Bahamas, and the Greater and Lesser Antilles. These swells will also begin to increase near the coasts of New England and Atlantic Canada by the end of the week. Please consult products from your local weather office as these conditions could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/1500Z 30.9N 56.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 03/0000Z 30.1N 56.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 03/1200Z 29.8N 56.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 04/0000Z 30.5N 56.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 04/1200Z 31.9N 56.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 05/1200Z 35.9N 56.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 06/1200Z 37.6N 54.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 07/1200Z 37.3N 50.5W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

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Hurricane Sergio Forecast Discussion Number 13

2018-10-02 16:33:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 900 AM MDT Tue Oct 02 2018 103 WTPZ41 KNHC 021433 TCDEP1 Hurricane Sergio Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018 900 AM MDT Tue Oct 02 2018 The cloud pattern of Sergio continues to become better organized on satellite imagery. The hurricane has a very cold cloud-topped central dense overcast, with a developing eye, surrounded by curved banding features. The current intensity is set at 85 kt based on a blend of subjective and objective Dvorak estimates. Sergio is forecast to continue moving over warm waters, under moderate vertical shear and within a moist mid-level airmass for the next few days. Therefore, additional strengthening is likely, and Sergio will probably become a major hurricane in a day or so. The official intensity forecast is close to the latest model consensus, IVCN. The hurricane has been moving westward at a slightly slower pace, and the motion estimate is 270/11 kt. A mid-level ridge to the north of the system will soon be eroding, due to a trough dropping in from the northwest. This change in steering currents should result in Sergio turning toward the west-northwest today followed by a northwestward motion in 2-3 days. In the latter part of the forecast period, the ridge builds back in, and this is likely to cause the tropical cyclone to turn back toward the west. The NHC track forecast is similar to the previous one and follows the dynamical model consensus, TVCN, fairly closely. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/1500Z 10.6N 114.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 03/0000Z 11.2N 115.3W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 03/1200Z 12.2N 116.9W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 04/0000Z 13.3N 118.2W 105 KT 120 MPH 48H 04/1200Z 14.3N 119.6W 105 KT 120 MPH 72H 05/1200Z 15.9N 122.1W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 06/1200Z 16.5N 125.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 07/1200Z 16.5N 128.0W 80 KT 90 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch

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Hurricane Sergio Forecast Discussion Number 12

2018-10-02 10:52:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 300 AM MDT Tue Oct 02 2018 255 WTPZ41 KNHC 020852 TCDEP1 Hurricane Sergio Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018 300 AM MDT Tue Oct 02 2018 Geostationary satellite imagery indicates that Sergio continues to strengthen. The center is located within a fairly symmetric CDO with cloud tops of -70 to -80 degrees C. Earlier microwave data showed a well-defined eye and inner core, but a more recent AMSU overpass suggests that there has been some slight erosion of the eastern portion of the eye, possibly due to some intrusion of dry mid-level air. Dvorak intensity estimates ranged from 75 to 90 kt, and the initial intensity has been increased to a possibility conservative 75 kt for this advisory. The intensity forecast remains somewhat uncertain. Although Sergio has developed an inner core and strengthened during the past 12 hour or so, the dynamical models suggest northeasterly shear will increase over the hurricane today. This is expected to temper the intensification somewhat over the next 12-24 hours, however, most of the guidance shows at least gradual strengthening during the next day or so. The NHC intensity forecast calls for a gradual increase in wind speed over the next 36-48 hours, and is close to the IVCN model consensus. After 72 h, cooler waters and the entrainment of drier air is expected to cause gradual weakening. Sergio is moving slightly south of due west or 265/12 kt. The hurricane is currently located to the south of a mid-level ridge, and Sergio should continue westward today. The global models show the western portion of the ridge weakening over the next several days, which should cause Sergio to turn west-northwestward, then northwestward on Wednesday. By late in the week, another ridge is predicted to build to the northwest of Sergio and the hurricane is forecast to turn back toward the west. The overall guidance envelope has changed little this cycle, and the new NHC track is similar to the previous advisory and close to the various consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0900Z 10.7N 113.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 02/1800Z 10.9N 114.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 03/0600Z 11.7N 116.4W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 03/1800Z 12.7N 117.8W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 04/0600Z 13.8N 119.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 72H 05/0600Z 15.6N 121.7W 100 KT 115 MPH 96H 06/0600Z 16.5N 124.6W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 07/0600Z 16.7N 127.5W 80 KT 90 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown

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