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Hurricane Sergio Forecast Discussion Number 16

2018-10-03 10:47:28| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 AM PDT Wed Oct 03 2018 577 WTPZ41 KNHC 030847 TCDEP1 Hurricane Sergio Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018 200 AM PDT Wed Oct 03 2018 There has been little change to the overall organization of the hurricane overnight. Recent microwave data continue to show that the eyewall is open to the northwest and that there is some northeast to southwest displacement of the low- and mid-level centers due to northeasterly shear. A blend of the various objective and subjective satellite intensity estimates yields an initial intensity of 100 kt. The global models suggest that the shear currently affecting Sergio will decrease over the next 24 to 36 hours, which should allow for strengthening. The NHC intensity forecast calls for Sergio to reach peak intensity in about 36 hours, and it is near the upper-end of the intensity guidance. After that time, slightly cooler waters and the entrainment of drier mid-level air are forecast to cause gradual weakening, but Sergio is expected to remain a hurricane through the entire forecast period. Sergio is moving west-northwestward or 300 degrees at 10 kt. The western portion of a mid-level ridge to the north of Sergio is expected to weaken during the next day or so, which should cause the hurricane to move northwestward at a slightly slower forward speed. By the weekend, another ridge is predicted to build to the northwest of Sergio, and this should force the hurricane to turn westward. The track guidance is in good agreement through 48 hours, but there is increasing cross-track spread thereafter. The updated NHC forecast is near the middle of the guidance envelope for the first two days, but lies between the more northern GFS solution and the consensus aids thereafter. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0900Z 12.3N 116.7W 100 KT 115 MPH 12H 03/1800Z 13.0N 117.8W 105 KT 120 MPH 24H 04/0600Z 14.0N 119.0W 110 KT 125 MPH 36H 04/1800Z 15.0N 120.3W 115 KT 130 MPH 48H 05/0600Z 15.8N 121.5W 110 KT 125 MPH 72H 06/0600Z 16.3N 124.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 07/0600Z 16.3N 127.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 08/0600Z 16.8N 130.0W 85 KT 100 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown

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Hurricane Leslie Forecast Discussion Number 28

2018-10-03 10:45:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM AST Wed Oct 03 2018 404 WTNT43 KNHC 030845 TCDAT3 Hurricane Leslie Discussion Number 28 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018 500 AM AST Wed Oct 03 2018 Deep convection surrounding the center of Leslie has become better organized overnight, with the development of a ragged eye in infrared satellite images. A 0552 UTC AMSR2 microwave overpass revealed a well-defined low-level eye with a ring of broken convection surrounding it. T-numbers from both TAFB and SAB were 4.0 on the Dvorak scale, therefore the initial intensity has been increased to 65 kt. This makes Leslie the sixth hurricane of the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season. The hurricane is forecast to remain within favorable environmental conditions consisting of warm water and low vertical wind shear over the next day or two. These conditions should allow for some additional strengthening. After 48 hours, Leslie will be moving over cooler waters, which should induce gradual weakening later in the period. Leslie has become nearly stationary overnight, and it appears that the cyclone's equatorward motion has likely come to an end. A shortwave trough to the northwest of the storm and a building ridge to the east, are expected to allow Leslie to begin moving northward by tonight. A northward motion is then expected to continue over the next 2-3 days, but by the weekend Leslie is predicted to turn eastward as a broad trough dips southward over the north Atlantic. The dynamical model guidance is in relatively good agreement on this scenario and the new NHC track forecast is essentially an update of the previous advisory. Large swells generated by Leslie are expected to increase over the next couple of days across the southeastern coast of the United States, Bermuda, the Bahamas, and the Greater and Lesser Antilles. These swells will also begin to increase near the coasts of New England and Atlantic Canada by the end of the week. Please consult products from your local weather office as these conditions could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0900Z 29.6N 56.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 03/1800Z 29.7N 57.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 04/0600Z 30.8N 57.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 04/1800Z 32.8N 57.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 05/0600Z 35.0N 57.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 06/0600Z 37.1N 56.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 07/0600Z 37.0N 53.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 08/0600Z 37.0N 50.5W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown

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Hurricane Sergio Forecast Discussion Number 15

2018-10-03 04:38:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 PM PDT Tue Oct 02 2018 761 WTPZ41 KNHC 030238 TCDEP1 Hurricane Sergio Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018 800 PM PDT Tue Oct 02 2018 The eye of Sergio has become obscured over the past several hours, indicating that the intensifying trend has levelled off. It appears that northeasterly shear is affecting the inner core as the latest microwave data indicate an open eyewall on the northern side of the hurricane. The intensity is held at 100 kt for this advisory since the overall wind speed estimates haven't changed much, although there is a fair spread in those values. The shear is forecast to decrease over the next day or two, which should allow further strengthening of Sergio, pending any eyewall cycles. Weakening is expected in the longer range while the hurricane moves over more shallow marginally warm waters. Only a small change has been made to the short term intensity forecast, and the rest of the forecast is essentially the same. Sergio has turned toward the west-northwest and slowed down, as forecast, now 300/9. A west-northwest or northwest track is expected as a ridge weakens to the north of Sergio for the next day or two. Thereafter, a strong ridge is forecast to build to the northwest of Sergio, which should force a westward motion. As has been the case for many cyclones this season, the GFS-based guidance is on the right side of track guidance envelope, while the ECMWF/UKMET are on the left side. The consensus has remained quite steady near the previous interpolated official forecast, thus the new forecast is basically just an update of the previous one. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0300Z 11.8N 115.8W 100 KT 115 MPH 12H 03/1200Z 12.5N 117.0W 105 KT 120 MPH 24H 04/0000Z 13.6N 118.5W 115 KT 130 MPH 36H 04/1200Z 14.6N 119.8W 120 KT 140 MPH 48H 05/0000Z 15.5N 121.1W 115 KT 130 MPH 72H 06/0000Z 16.4N 123.6W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 07/0000Z 16.5N 126.6W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 08/0000Z 16.8N 129.5W 85 KT 100 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake

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Tropical Storm Leslie Forecast Discussion Number 27

2018-10-03 04:35:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 PM AST Tue Oct 02 2018 005 WTNT43 KNHC 030235 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number 27 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018 1100 PM AST Tue Oct 02 2018 Leslie has been trying to become a hurricane all day, but it is not one yet. The cloud pattern has changed very little during the past several hours and in fact, one could make the case that is less organized that earlier today with no eye feature trying to form at this time. However, Dvorak classifications still support an initial intensity of 60 kt, and this is confirmed by a recent ASCAT pass with winds of at least 55 kt. Having said that, environmental conditions of low shear and a warm ocean favor strengthening, and NHC again forecasts Leslie to become a hurricane on Wednesday and remain one for a couple of days. After that time, Leslie will reach cooler waters and gradual weakening is anticipated. Leslie is moving very slowly toward the southwest or 220 degrees at 3 kt while embedded within very light steering currents. Most of the global models bring an eastward-moving short wave near Leslie, and this flow pattern should force the cyclone to move northward for the next 2 to 3 days. Thereafter, Leslie will encounter the mid-latitude westerlies and will move eastward. The forecast is very similar to the previous one and closely follows both the corrected-consensus HCCA and the other multi-model aids. Large swells generated by Leslie are expected to increase tomorrow and Thursday across the southeastern coast of the United States, Bermuda, the Bahamas, and the Greater and Lesser Antilles. These swells will also begin to increase near the coasts of New England and Atlantic Canada by the end of the week. Please consult products from your local weather office as these conditions could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. The initial 34- and 50-kt wind radii have been slightly adjusted based on recent ASCAT data. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0300Z 29.7N 56.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 03/1200Z 29.4N 56.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 04/0000Z 30.0N 57.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 04/1200Z 31.5N 57.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 05/0000Z 33.8N 57.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 06/0000Z 36.5N 57.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 07/0000Z 37.0N 54.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 08/0000Z 37.0N 51.0W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Avila

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Tropical Storm Leslie Forecast Discussion Number 26

2018-10-02 22:35:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 PM AST Tue Oct 02 2018 614 WTNT43 KNHC 022035 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number 26 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018 500 PM AST Tue Oct 02 2018 Leslie is almost a hurricane. Satellite images indicate that a ring of deep convection now nearly surrounds Leslie's large ragged eye. A pair of ASCAT passes from this morning showed maximum winds around 55 kt. Based on that data and a blend of the latest Dvorak estimates, the initial intensity is increased to 60 kt. Leslie is expected to remain over relatively warm water and in favorable atmospheric conditions for another day or two, so continued gradual strengthening is forecast during that time period. Based on the improved organization this afternoon and the model guidance, Leslie is forecast to reach hurricane strength tonight or early Wednesday. After a couple of days, the system is expected to move over waters cooler than 26 deg C, and those unfavorable oceanic conditions combined with some increase in shear this weekend should cause a slow weakening trend. The NHC intensity forecast remains between the aggressive statistical-dynamical models and the lower HMON and COAMPS-TC models, but this forecast is a tad higher than the previous one. The tropical storm is still losing latitude, with the latest initial motion now estimated to be 205/8. This south-southwestward motion is expected to slow down tonight, and Leslie will likely come to a stall on Wednesday in very weak steering currents. After that time, the combination of a shortwave trough to the west and an amplifying mid-level ridge to the southeast should cause Leslie to move northward on Thursday and Friday. A turn to the northeast and then east is forecast to occur by the weekend when the storm moves within the mid-latitude westerlies. The NHC track forecast is nudged to the south and west of the previous one to come into better agreement with the latest guidance. Large swells generated by Leslie are expected to increase tomorrow and Thursday across the southeastern coast of the United States, Bermuda, the Bahamas, and the Greater and Lesser Antilles. These swells will also begin to increase near the coasts of New England and Atlantic Canada by the end of the week. Please consult products from your local weather office as these conditions could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. The initial 34- and 50-kt wind radii have been modified based on the aforementioned ASCAT data. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/2100Z 30.1N 56.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 03/0600Z 29.7N 56.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 03/1800Z 29.5N 56.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 04/0600Z 30.7N 56.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 04/1800Z 32.6N 56.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 05/1800Z 36.3N 56.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 06/1800Z 37.2N 54.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 07/1800Z 37.0N 51.0W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

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