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Tropical Storm Leslie Forecast Discussion Number 35
2018-10-05 04:32:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Thu Oct 04 2018 000 WTNT43 KNHC 050232 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number 35 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018 1100 PM AST Thu Oct 04 2018 Leslie lacks an inner core and now consists of a vigorous large circulation with small outer bands of shallow to moderate convection. Satellite intensity estimates have continued to yield a lower intensity, and the winds have been reduced to 55 kt in this advisory based on a recent ASCAT pass. The shear does not appear to be a problem for Leslie, and the cyclone is forecast to be moving over SSTs which appear to not be cool enough to result in significant weakening. In fact, the average of the intensity guidance suggests that Leslie basically will be a 50-kt cyclone through the forecast period and so does the NHC forecast. Leslie is moving northward or 350 degrees at 10 kt steered by the southerly flow on the western edge of the subtropical ridge. In about 24 to 36 hours, the storm will encounter the mid-latitude westerlies, and this flow pattern will force Leslie to make a sharp turn to the east and even to the east-southeast with no change in forward speed. Track guidance is in extremely good agreement with this solution for the next 3 to 4 days. After that time, the models vary significantly in speed, but since the cyclone will be embedded in the westerlies, the NHC forecast maintains the eastward progression of Leslie as indicated in the previous forecast. Large swells generated by Leslie are expected to continue during the next few days across the southeastern coast of the United States, Bermuda, the Bahamas, and the Greater and Lesser Antilles. These swells will also begin to increase near the coasts of New England and Atlantic Canada on Friday. Please consult products from your local weather office as these conditions could cause life- threatening surf and rip currents. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0300Z 34.9N 57.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 05/1200Z 36.2N 58.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 06/0000Z 37.2N 57.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 06/1200Z 37.5N 56.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 07/0000Z 37.5N 54.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 08/0000Z 36.5N 50.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 09/0000Z 34.5N 45.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 10/0000Z 33.0N 42.5W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Avila
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Hurricane Sergio Forecast Discussion Number 23
2018-10-05 04:32:15| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Thu Oct 04 2018 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 050232 TCDEP1 Hurricane Sergio Discussion Number 23 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018 800 PM PDT Thu Oct 04 2018 Sergio's cloud pattern has deteriorated somewhat since the previous advisory, with cloud tops warming and the eye becoming more ragged and less distinct. The initial intensity is reduced to 110 kt based on a blend of the latest objective and subjective Dvorak estimates. Sergio is expected to steadily weaken for the next 48 hours while moving into a drier and more stable environment. By then, most of the guidance suggests little change from 48-72 hours before the shear increases by the end of the period and SSTs cool to between 26C and 27C, which should again result in weakening. The new NHC intensity forecast is lower than the previous one during the first 48 hours to account for the observed weakening and the trend in the guidance, but is similar after that time. This prediction is close to or a bit above the latest HCCA intensity consensus aid. Sergio has turned toward the left during the past few hours, with an initial motion estimate now 305/07. A mid-level ridge building to the northwest of Sergio will steer the hurricane toward the west and even toward the west-southwest during the next 36 to 48 hours. After that time, an amplifying longwave trough over western North America will erode the ridge and cause Sergio to recurve, with a faster northeastward motion shown by day 5. The new NHC track forecast has been adjusted to the south of the previous one from 24 to 48 hours, following the trend of the latest consensus aids, which are showing a more equatorward motion during this time. At days 3 through 5, the NHC track is largely an update of the previous one, and lies between the faster GFS and the slower ECMWF models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0300Z 15.9N 120.5W 110 KT 125 MPH 12H 05/1200Z 16.0N 121.4W 100 KT 115 MPH 24H 06/0000Z 15.9N 122.5W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 06/1200Z 15.6N 123.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 07/0000Z 15.5N 125.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 08/0000Z 16.0N 127.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 09/0000Z 17.5N 127.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 10/0000Z 19.5N 124.5W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Brennan
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Tropical Storm Leslie Forecast Discussion Number 34
2018-10-04 22:33:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Thu Oct 04 2018 000 WTNT43 KNHC 042033 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number 34 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018 500 PM AST Thu Oct 04 2018 Leslie has changed little in convective structure today. Visible imagery shows occasional appearances of an eye inside an area of central convection, with a complex of outer bands wrapping around this inner feature. Infrared imagery, though, suggests that the convection is relatively shallow. Despite the lack of change in the convective pattern, scatterometer data shows there have been significant changes in the wind structure. The strongest winds are now in a band about 90-100 n mi from the center, with the winds in the inner core being notably weaker. This suggest the possibility that Leslie is trying to undergo an eyewall replacement, albeit one with a very large outer eyewall. Based on the scatterometer data and slightly decreased satellite intensity estimates, the initial intensity is reduced to 60 kt. There is little change to the intensity forecast philosophy, the intensity forecast guidance, or the intensity forecast. While the vertical shear should remain light through the forecast period, the forecast track takes the center away from 26C sea surface temperatures and over 24-25C temperatures, and this should cause a gradual weakening for the next several days. There are major changes to the initial and forecast wind radii based on the scatterometer data and the analyzed initial size. The initial motion is 355/10. In the short term, Leslie will be steered northward between a mid-level ridge over the central Atlantic and a mid- to upper-level trough seen in water vapor imagery north of Bermuda. A decrease in forward speed should occur from 24-36 h as the trough moves south and a second ridge develops to the west of the tropical cyclone. Beyond 36 h, Leslie is expected to move eastward to east-southeastward at a faster forward speed along the southern edge of the mid-latitude westerlies. Overall, the new forecast track is close to the previous track through 48 h, then a little north of the old track after that time. However, there is an increased spread in the guidance in both the track and the forward speed near the end of the forecast period, and confidence is decreasing for this part of the forecast. Large swells generated by Leslie are expected to continue during the next few days across the southeastern coast of the United States, Bermuda, the Bahamas, and the Greater and Lesser Antilles. These swells will also begin to increase near the coasts of New England and Atlantic Canada on Friday. Please consult products from your local weather office as these conditions could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/2100Z 33.3N 57.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 05/0600Z 34.9N 58.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 05/1800Z 36.1N 58.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 06/0600Z 36.8N 57.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 06/1800Z 36.7N 55.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 07/1800Z 36.0N 52.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 08/1800Z 34.5N 48.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 09/1800Z 32.5N 44.5W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven
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Hurricane Sergio Forecast Discussion Number 22
2018-10-04 22:33:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Thu Oct 04 2018 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 042033 TCDEP1 Hurricane Sergio Discussion Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018 200 PM PDT Thu Oct 04 2018 Sergio remains an impressive hurricane. Although the cloud pattern is still symmetric and well organized, the eye has become ragged and cloud filled at times. The current satellite intensity estimates range from 102 to 127 kt, and the initial intensity is set to 115 kt based on a blend of these data. The environmental conditions along Sergio's future path are expected to gradually become less favorable during the next several days, with decreasing mid-level humidities, cooler SSTs, and a slight increase in wind shear. In response, all of the models show a gradual weakening trend through the period, and the NHC forecast does as well. This forecast lies near the intensity consensus aids and is largely an update of the previous one. The hurricane is still moving to the northwest at 8 kt. A gradual turn to the left, or west, is expected during the next couple of days as a mid-level ridge builds to the north-northwest of Sergio. Late this weekend, a decrease in forward speed is expected as the ridge retreats in response to a large trough over the southwestern United States. This change in the steering pattern should cause the cyclone to turn northeastward by the end of the forecast period. The only notable change in the track forecast is a sharper northward and northeastward turn at days 4 and 5, to come in better agreement with the latest consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/2100Z 15.5N 119.9W 115 KT 130 MPH 12H 05/0600Z 15.9N 120.8W 110 KT 125 MPH 24H 05/1800Z 16.1N 121.9W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 06/0600Z 15.9N 123.2W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 06/1800Z 15.7N 124.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 07/1800Z 15.7N 126.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 08/1800Z 16.8N 127.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 09/1800Z 18.3N 126.2W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Session #4 - River & Riverbank Areas Protection & Restoration Discussion Questions (10/4/18)
2018-10-04 17:51:47| PortlandOnline
PDF Document, 492kbCategory: Session #4 River & Riverbank Areas: Protection & Restoration
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