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Tropical Storm Leslie Forecast Discussion Number 22

2018-10-01 22:36:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 PM AST Mon Oct 01 2018 184 WTNT43 KNHC 012036 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018 500 PM AST Mon Oct 01 2018 The cloud pattern of Leslie has improved throughout the day, and the system now has a ragged eye with multiple mesovorticies within it. In addition, the associated convection has become more symmetric this afternoon, but the cloud tops are not very cold south of the center. Even though the system looks better organized, the satellite intensity estimates are again unchanged. Accordingly, the initial intensity is held at 50 kt near the high end of the satellite estimates. Leslie will likely strengthen gradually during the next day or so as it heads toward slightly warmer SSTs and remains in relatively low wind shear conditions. Most of the models show Leslie becoming a hurricane on Tuesday, and the NHC forecast follows that guidance. Leslie is expected to move north-northeastward back over its own upwelled cool waters late this week and this weekend, which should promote a gradual weakening trend. The NHC intensity forecast is identical to the previous one and in line with the HCCA and IVCN models. Leslie continues to drift to the southwest on the east side of a mid-level high. There has been no change to the track forecast philosophy. Leslie is expected to continue to move slowly southward to southwestward in weak steering currents during the next couple of days. Thereafter, a developing shortwave trough to the west of Leslie should cause it to move north-northeastward to northeastward at a slightly faster pace. The guidance has shifted south and west this cycle, and the NHC track forecast has been adjusted in those directions. Regardless of the details of the forecast track, there is high confidence that Leslie will meander for quite a while over the central Atlantic. Large swells generated by Leslie will continue to affect portions of the southeastern coast of the United States, Bermuda, the Bahamas, and most of the Greater and Lesser Antilles through tonight. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. Although the swells will diminish slightly by Tuesday, they are expected to increase again over the Bahamas and most of the Greater and Lesser Antilles late Wednesday and Thursday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/2100Z 32.8N 54.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 02/0600Z 31.9N 55.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 02/1800Z 30.9N 55.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 03/0600Z 30.2N 56.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 03/1800Z 30.0N 56.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 04/1800Z 33.3N 55.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 05/1800Z 36.4N 55.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 06/1800Z 37.2N 52.8W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

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New rules for design review process and tools move forward as one package; Discussion Draft to be released early next year

2018-10-01 20:52:20| PortlandOnline

The Design Overlay Zone Amendments (DOZA) Process and DOZA Tools projects will be combined into a single package for easier public review and comment.

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Tropical Storm Sergio Forecast Discussion Number 9

2018-10-01 16:33:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 900 AM MDT Mon Oct 01 2018 009 WTPZ41 KNHC 011433 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Sergio Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018 900 AM MDT Mon Oct 01 2018 Sergio is almost a hurricane. Satellite images indicate that the central convection has been increasing in intensity during the past several hours, but there are still no indications of an eye in that data. Microwave imagery does show an eye feature, however. The outer bands are not particularly well organized, and there are some dry slots beyond the inner core. The initial intensity is held at 60 kt, following a blend of the latest Dvorak estimates. As mentioned in the previous discussion, the models have been too bullish on Sergio strengthening during the past couple of days. This could be due to the aforementioned dry slots that were not well predicted by both the statistical and dynamical guidance. Looking ahead to the next several days, the environmental conditions are mixed. The wind shear and SSTs appear conducive for strengthening during the next couple of days, so steady intensification is predicted during that time period. However, as seen during the past day or two, dry air could slow the intensification rate. Beyond a couple of days, the models show a brief increase in shear and a steady decrease in mid-level moisture and SSTs. These conditions will likely end the opportunity for strengthening and cause a slow weakening trend. The NHC intensity forecast is about the same as the previous one, and it lies between the usually reliable HCCA and IVCN consensus models. Sergio is moving westward at 10 kt steered by a mid-level ridge to its north and northeast. A continued westward motion is expected for another day followed by a turn to the west-northwest and then the northwest as the western side of the ridge weakens due to a large-scale trough near the southwestern United States. By the end of the forecast period, a ridge is expected to build to the north of Sergio, which should cause a turn back to the left. The models are in very good agreement overall, and little change has been made to the previous forecast track. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/1500Z 11.5N 109.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 02/0000Z 11.4N 111.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 02/1200Z 11.7N 113.4W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 03/0000Z 12.4N 115.3W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 03/1200Z 13.3N 116.8W 100 KT 115 MPH 72H 04/1200Z 15.3N 119.3W 100 KT 115 MPH 96H 05/1200Z 17.0N 121.8W 95 KT 110 MPH 120H 06/1200Z 18.0N 124.3W 85 KT 100 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

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Tropical Storm Rosa Forecast Discussion Number 26

2018-10-01 16:32:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 AM PDT Mon Oct 01 2018 219 WTPZ45 KNHC 011432 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Rosa Discussion Number 26 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202018 800 AM PDT Mon Oct 01 2018 Most of Rosa's deep convection has been sheared northeastward over portions of the Baja California peninsula, Sonora, and the southwestern United States. Locally heavy rains are already occurring over those areas. Assuming a gradual weakening of the cyclone since the last scatterometer overpass, and blending Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB, gives a current intensity estimate of 40 kt. Since the cyclone will continue to be influenced by strong shear, cooler waters, and then interact with land, continued weakening is likely over the next day or so. Rosa is expected to degenerate into a remnant low by the time it reaches the southwestern United States on Tuesday. The system is moving north-northeastward, or 030/10 kt. Rosa should continue to be steered on that heading, to the east of a broad mid-level trough off the California coast. Some increase in forward speed is expected after Rosa's remnants move into the Desert Southwest. The official track forecast remains very close to the multi-model consensus. Key Messages: 1. The main hazard expected from Rosa or its remnants is very heavy rainfall in Baja California, northwestern Sonora, and the U.S. Desert Southwest. These rains are expected to produce life-threatening flash flooding and debris flows in the deserts, and landslides in mountainous terrain. For more information about potential rainfall in that area, please see products from the Weather Prediction Center and your local NWS forecast office. 2. Tropical storm conditions are affecting portions of the central and northern Baja California peninsula, especially over higher elevations. These conditions could spread into the northern Gulf of California later tonight. Interests in those locations should monitor the progress of Rosa. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/1500Z 27.5N 116.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 02/0000Z 28.9N 115.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 02/1200Z 31.3N 114.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 03/0000Z 34.3N 112.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 48H 03/1200Z 37.0N 112.0W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 72H 04/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch

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Tropical Storm Leslie Forecast Discussion Number 21

2018-10-01 16:31:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM AST Mon Oct 01 2018 712 WTNT43 KNHC 011431 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018 1100 AM AST Mon Oct 01 2018 Leslie is gradually becoming better organized. A large band of deep convection exists on the west side of the circulation and some fragmented bands are beginning to form on the east side. Overall, Leslie appears more symmetric than it has been during the past couple of days due to a decrease in wind shear. Despite the improved appearance, the satellite intensity estimates are largely unchanged, so the initial intensity is held at 50 kt, near the high end of the estimates. Since Leslie is forecast to be in a low wind shear environment and expected to move over slightly higher SSTs during the next couple of days, slow strengthening is predicted. Most of the models show Leslie becoming a hurricane in 24 to 36 hours, and the NHC forecast follows suit. By late in the week and this weekend, Leslie is expected to move north-northeastward back over its previous track, where it has upwelled cooler waters. These less conducive oceanic conditions should cause a slow decay. Leslie continues to drift to the southwest on the east side of a mid-level high, and a continued slow south to southwest motion is expected during the next couple of days. Thereafter, a developing shortwave trough to the west of Leslie should cause it to move north-northeastward but only at a slightly faster pace. The NHC track forecast is nudged to the left of the previous one to come into better agreement with the latest guidance. Regardless of the details of the forecast track, there is high confidence that Leslie will meander for quite a while over the central Atlantic. Large swells generated by Leslie will continue to affect portions of the southeastern coast of the United States, Bermuda, the Bahamas, and most of the Greater and Lesser Antilles through tonight. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. Although the swells will diminish slightly by Tuesday, they are expected to increase again over the Bahamas and most of the Greater and Lesser Antilles late Wednesday and Thursday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/1500Z 33.2N 54.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 02/0000Z 32.7N 54.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 02/1200Z 31.6N 55.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 03/0000Z 30.7N 55.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 03/1200Z 30.4N 56.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 04/1200Z 32.5N 55.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 05/1200Z 35.7N 54.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 06/1200Z 37.4N 52.0W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

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