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Hurricane Felicia Forecast Discussion Number 17

2021-07-18 10:40:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1100 PM HST Sat Jul 17 2021 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 180840 TCDEP1 Hurricane Felicia Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062021 1100 PM HST Sat Jul 17 2021 Felicia has maintained its impressive structure tonight, with a symmetric ring of very cold infrared cloud-top temperatures surrounding a warm and well-defined eye. Recent microwave imagery shows that Felicia still has a very compact inner core. The initial intensity is maintained at 120 kt, as the hurricane's satellite appearance has shown no signs of decay since the last advisory. This intensity is consistent with subjective T6.0 Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB. Felicia should weaken during the next couple of days as the hurricane moves over cooler sea-surface temperatures, although this could be a gradual process while the vertical wind shear remains low. By Tuesday, increasing northwesterly wind shear in a drier, more stable environment is expected to accelerate the weakening of Felicia through the middle and latter parts of the week. Although the official NHC forecast shows remnant low status by day 5, it is plausible that this could occur even sooner if the higher shear values in the ECMWF SHIPS guidance materialize. The official NHC intensity forecast lies above the guidance model consensus through 48 h, then aligns with the HFIP corrected consensus approach (HCCA) aid through the rest of the forecast period. Felicia is still moving west-northwestward at about 9 kt. The track guidance has been quite consistent and remains in very good agreement, which makes for a high confidence track forecast. The cyclone is expected to turn more westward by Monday, then move west-southwestward through midweek as Felicia becomes steered by an expansive ridge across the central Pacific. The NHC track forecast is essentially unchanged from the previous one and lies between the reliable consensus aids TVCE and HCCA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0900Z 15.5N 127.1W 120 KT 140 MPH 12H 18/1800Z 15.8N 128.5W 115 KT 130 MPH 24H 19/0600Z 16.1N 130.6W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 19/1800Z 16.3N 132.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 20/0600Z 16.2N 134.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 20/1800Z 15.9N 137.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 21/0600Z 15.3N 140.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 22/0600Z 14.3N 145.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 23/0600Z 13.5N 151.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Pasch

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Tropical Storm Guillermo Forecast Discussion Number 4

2021-07-18 10:35:28| Tropical Depression LIDIA

Issued at 300 AM MDT Sun Jul 18 2021

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Tropical Storm Guillermo Forecast Discussion Number 3

2021-07-18 04:36:22| Tropical Depression LIDIA

Issued at 900 PM MDT Sat Jul 17 2021

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Tropical Storm Guillermo Forecast Discussion Number 2

2021-07-17 22:39:45| Tropical Depression LIDIA

Issued at 300 PM MDT Sat Jul 17 2021

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Hurricane Felicia Forecast Discussion Number 15

2021-07-17 22:32:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1100 AM HST Sat Jul 17 2021 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 172032 TCDEP1 Hurricane Felicia Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062021 1100 AM HST Sat Jul 17 2021 Felicia has remained an impressive hurricane this morning. The hurricane's clear eye is still surrounded by a ring of very cold cloud tops and recent microwave overpasses show that the tiny cyclone continues to exhibit a very symmetric convective inner-core structure. The intensity estimate is still 125 kt, based on the latest TAFB Dvorak fix. Due to the small size of the hurricane and the lack of ground truth so far from land, it is worth mentioning that the uncertainty in that estimate is somewhat higher than usual. Virtually no change was made to the NHC track, intensity, or size forecasts, though the uncertainty in the intensity forecast remains high. All of the available intensity guidance continues to insist that at least gradual weakening will begin soon. Although that hasn't panned out yet, cooler SSTs ahead of Felicia could still contribute to at least a little weakening later today and Sunday. A faster rate of weakening is expected by around 48 h as the small cyclone moves over colder-yet waters and possibly encounters some moderate wind shear. There is poor agreement among the various global and regional models how soon the shear will affect Felicia. Once it does, the hurricane will likely decline rapidly due to the very small size of its inner core. By 72 h, every typically reliable intensity model shows Felicia below hurricane strength. The official intensity forecast remains on the very high side of the guidance, closest to the interpolated GFS forecast for the first 3 days, and is near the intensity consensus after that. Felicia has turned west-northwestward, with a forward speed of around 7 kt. In contrast to the intensity forecast, confidence in the track forecast is very high. A turn back toward the west is anticipated by late Sunday as a ridge to the north of Felicia builds slightly. Felicia should then turn west-southwestward early next week as it comes under the influence of an extensive deep-layer ridge centered over the central Pacific. The spread in the track guidance is low, and the NHC track forecast is very similar to the various consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/2100Z 14.9N 125.3W 125 KT 145 MPH 12H 18/0600Z 15.3N 126.6W 120 KT 140 MPH 24H 18/1800Z 15.8N 128.5W 110 KT 125 MPH 36H 19/0600Z 16.1N 130.5W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 19/1800Z 16.1N 132.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 20/0600Z 16.0N 134.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 20/1800Z 15.6N 137.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 21/1800Z 14.7N 142.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 22/1800Z 14.0N 148.0W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Zelinsky

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