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Tropical Storm Felicia Forecast Discussion Number 23
2021-07-19 22:39:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1100 AM HST Mon Jul 19 2021 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 192039 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Felicia Discussion Number 23 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062021 1100 AM HST Mon Jul 19 2021 Felicia continues to weaken at a rapid pace. Satellite images show that only a small amount of deep convection in the northeastern quadrant remains, and otherwise the circulation is largely a swirl of low-level clouds. Dvorak classifications continue to fall, and a blend of the latest intensity estimates from TAFB, SAB, and CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin support lowering the initial intensity to 55 kt. This makes Felicia a tropical storm once again. A recent ASCAT-A pass showed peak winds close to 45 kt, but given the very small size of the system and relatively coarse resolution of the instrument, it seems reasonable that stronger winds are occurring. Very dry air surrounding the small storm combined with cool SSTs and a steady rise in northwesterly wind shear should cause additional weakening, and Felicia will likely become a remnant low in a couple of days, or possibly sooner if the current trends continue. The intensity forecast follows the bulk of the guidance and is a little lower than the previous one. Felicia has been losing some latitude today, and the latest initial motion estimate is 265/11 kt. A low- to mid-level ridge to the north of the storm should steer Felicia west-southwestward to westward during the next several days until the cyclone dissipates, which is now expected to occur by day 4. Based on the current forecast, Felicia should cross into the Central Pacific basin by Tuesday night. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/2100Z 16.1N 133.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 20/0600Z 15.9N 135.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 20/1800Z 15.5N 138.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 21/0600Z 15.0N 141.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 21/1800Z 14.4N 143.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 22/0600Z 13.7N 146.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 22/1800Z 13.1N 148.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 23/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Depression Guillermo Forecast Discussion Number 10
2021-07-19 22:38:28| Tropical Depression LIDIA
Issued at 200 PM PDT Mon Jul 19 2021
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Tropical Storm Guillermo Forecast Discussion Number 9
2021-07-19 16:37:53| Tropical Depression LIDIA
Issued at 500 AM HST Mon Jul 19 2021
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Hurricane Felicia Forecast Discussion Number 22
2021-07-19 16:35:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 500 AM HST Mon Jul 19 2021 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 191435 TCDEP1 Hurricane Felicia Discussion Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062021 500 AM HST Mon Jul 19 2021 Felicia continues to rapidly weaken as it heads toward the Central Pacific. Satellite images show a shrinking area of deep convection that is now generally confined to the northeast quadrant of the circulation. The Dvorak classifications continue to fall, and a blend of the latest estimates from TAFB, SAB, and CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin support lowering the initial intensity to 70 kt, and even that seems generous. The weakening and very compact storm is surrounded by dry mid-level air. This stable environment, cool 25 C SSTs, and increasing wind shear should cause the rapid weakening trend to continue. Felicia is forecast to weaken to a tropical storm later today and a remnant low in a few days when it expected to be in an environment of about 40 kt of northwesterly shear and very dry air, which will likely cause all of the deep convection to dissipate. The NHC intensity forecast is lower than the previous one, and in line with the majority of the latest guidance. Felicia is moving westward at about 10 kt. A slightly faster westward to west-southwestward motion is expected during the next several days as Felicia, or its remnants, move in the flow on the south side of a low- to mid-level high to its north. The NHC track forecast is just a tad south of the previous one and lies close to the various consensus aids. Based on the current forecast, the weakening system is expected to cross into the Central Pacific basin by tomorrow night. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/1500Z 16.3N 132.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 20/0000Z 16.2N 134.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 20/1200Z 16.0N 136.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 21/0000Z 15.5N 139.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 21/1200Z 14.9N 142.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 22/0000Z 14.5N 144.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 22/1200Z 14.0N 147.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 23/1200Z 13.6N 153.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Hurricane Felicia Forecast Discussion Number 21
2021-07-19 10:39:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1100 PM HST Sun Jul 18 2021 956 WTPZ41 KNHC 190839 TCDEP1 Hurricane Felicia Discussion Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062021 1100 PM HST Sun Jul 18 2021 Felicia continues to rapidly weaken tonight. The eye is no longer visible in satellite imagery, and the low-level center is embedded underneath a small central dense overcast. Recent SSMIS and GMI microwave imagery reveal the hurricane no longer has a well-defined eyewall, with a lack of deep convection noted in the southern portion of the compact circulation. A blend of the objective UW-CIMSS ADT and subjective Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB supports lowering the initial intensity to 85 kt with this advisory. Steady to rapid weakening is expected to continue over the next couple of days as Felicia moves over decreasing SSTs and into an environment with increasing vertical wind shear. The combination of this shear and entrainment of drier mid-level air into the inner core of Felicia should disrupt the small cyclone's ability to maintain its convective organization. The official NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous one and shows steady weakening that generally follows the IVCN consensus aid. GFS and ECMWF simulated satellite imagery indicate that Felicia could lose all deep, organized convection as early as Wednesday, when the northwesterly shear strengthens to 30-40 kt over the cyclone. Recent scatterometer and microwave data indicate Felicia has begun turning more westward, and its initial motion is estimated to be 280/10 kt. A westward to west-southwestward motion is forecast during the next several days as the cyclone moves around a subtropical ridge that extends across the central Pacific. The track guidance remains tightly clustered and the official NHC track forecast is largely unchanged, with only a slight southward adjustment that follows the latest multi-model consensus. Based on this forecast, Felicia is expected to cross over into the central Pacific basin on Tuesday night. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0900Z 16.4N 131.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 19/1800Z 16.3N 132.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 20/0600Z 16.2N 134.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 20/1800Z 15.8N 137.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 21/0600Z 15.3N 140.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 21/1800Z 14.9N 143.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 22/0600Z 14.4N 146.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 23/0600Z 14.0N 151.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 24/0600Z 13.5N 157.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Pasch
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