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Tropical Storm Felicia Forecast Discussion Number 4
2021-07-15 04:35:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Wed Jul 14 2021 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 150235 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Felicia Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062021 800 PM PDT Wed Jul 14 2021 Felicia has maintained a healthy satellite appearance today, with a symmetric central dense overcast and continued bursts of deep convection near and over its center. The upper-level outflow on the eastern side of the circulation appears somewhat limited, perhaps suggestive of some easterly wind shear. A mid-level eye was noted in earlier microwave data, but unfortunately no recent passes have sampled Felicia to help assess how the structure has changed. A blend of the subjective Dvorak classifications from TAFB (T3.5/55 kt) and SAB (T4.0/65 kt) supports an initial intensity of 60 kt for this advisory, which is slightly higher than the objective ADT and SATCON estimates of around 50-55 kt. Felicia is moving west-northwestward, or 285/13 kt, but the cyclone is forecast to turn westward and then west-southwestward during the next couple of days in response to a reorientation of the ridge axis to the north of Felicia. Thereafter, a general westward motion is likely through the rest of the forecast period as a low- to mid-level ridge remains positioned to the north of Felicia. The track guidance is tightly clustered, and the official NHC track forecast is essentially an update of the previous one with a slight southward adjustment that follows the consensus aids TVCE and HCCA. Felicia is expected to continue strengthening during the next couple of days over warm SSTs in a low vertical wind shear environment. The only apparent hindrance is some dry mid-level air in the surrounding environment, which could disrupt Felicia's convective organization if it is entrained into the inner core of the small cyclone. The SHIPS guidance indicates that Felicia will move into a drier and more stable mid- to upper-level environment beginning Friday, which is forecast to end the storm's intensification phase and induce a gradual weakening trend this weekend and into early next week. The official NHC intensity forecast is very similar to the previous one and closely follows the HCCA guidance. The intensity forecast becomes more track-sensitive by 48 h, as the expected west-southwestward turn would keep Felicia to the south of the 26 deg C isotherm. This should allow the cyclone to remain at or near hurricane strength through the end of the forecast period. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0300Z 15.1N 116.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 15/1200Z 15.4N 118.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 16/0000Z 15.5N 120.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 16/1200Z 15.3N 121.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 17/0000Z 15.0N 123.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 17/1200Z 14.7N 124.7W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 18/0000Z 14.7N 126.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 19/0000Z 14.8N 130.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 20/0000Z 15.0N 134.5W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Pasch
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Tropical Storm Felicia Forecast Discussion Number 3
2021-07-14 22:33:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Wed Jul 14 2021 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 142033 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Felicia Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062021 200 PM PDT Wed Jul 14 2021 Visible satellite imagery continues to show an increase in organization and convective banding in association with Felicia. The central dense overcast has also expanded and become more symmetric since this morning. A 1630 UTC GMI microwave overpass revealed a formative mid-level eye but some dry air was noted around the northwestern portion of the circulation. Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB are T3.5 (55 kt) and T3.0 (45 kt), but given the continued increase in organization the initial intensity is set at 55 kt, the high end of the satellite estimates. Continued strengthening is expected while Felicia remains over warm SSTs and within an area of vertical wind shear of less than 10 kt. The intensity guidance is still not overly bullish on strengthening, perhaps due to nearby dry mid-level air that could cause some pauses in the deepening process of the small tropical cyclone. The NHC intensity forecast is near the high end of the guidance through 24-36 h, and could be conservative if dry air does not disrupt the inner core. After 48 hours, slightly lower SSTs and a more stable air mass just to the north of the storm is likely to cause gradual weakening, but Felicia is forecast to remain a hurricane through much of the forecast period. Felicia is moving west-northwestward or 285/13 kt. A low- to mid-level ridge to the north of the tropical cyclone should continue to steer Felicia west-northwestward to westward through early Thursday. The ridge is forecast to weaken slightly and become oriented northeast to southwest, which is expected to cause Felicia to turn west-southwestward in 36-48 hours and a west-southwestward to westward motion should then continue through the rest of the forecast period. The track guidance remains in fairly good agreement, resulting in higher than normal confidence in the official forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/2100Z 14.8N 115.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 15/0600Z 15.3N 117.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 15/1800Z 15.5N 118.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 16/0600Z 15.5N 120.4W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 16/1800Z 15.2N 121.9W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 17/0600Z 15.0N 123.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 17/1800Z 14.9N 125.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 18/1800Z 14.9N 128.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 19/1800Z 14.8N 133.2W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm Felicia Forecast Discussion Number 2
2021-07-14 16:50:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Wed Jul 14 2021 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 141450 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Felicia Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062021 900 AM MDT Wed Jul 14 2021 Recent satellite data indicate that the tropical cyclone has continued to organize this morning. An AMSR2 microwave pass around 0900 UTC revealed a well-defined banding feature that wrapped more than half-way around the center and early-light visible images show a developing CDO with the center located beneath the eastern portion of the cold cloud tops. Based on Dvorak T-numbers of 3.0 and 2.5 from TAFB and SAB, respectively, the initial intensity was increased to 40 kt on a Tropical Cyclone Update issued at 1315 UTC. With the continued increase in organization, the advisory intensity has been raised to 45 kt. Felicia is located over warm SSTs and in an area of low vertical wind shear. Given the recent development of a small inner-core, it seems likely that Felicia will continue to strengthen during the next couple of days. The only caveat appears to be nearby dry air that could get entrained into the circulation of the relatively small tropical cyclone and cause some disruptions in the intensification process. Although most of the intensity guidance is not extremely bullish and the rapid intensification probabilities are not particularly high, the NHC forecast predicts steady strengthening and brings Felicia to hurricane status within 24 hours. The NHC wind speed forecast is in best agreement with the HFIP corrected consensus model, which is at the upper-end of the guidance. The tropical storm is moving west-northwestward or 285/13 kt. A mid-level ridge to the north of Felicia should steer the storm west-northwestward to westward during the next 12-24 h. After that time, the orientation of the ridge shifts slightly which is expected to cause Felicia to turn west-southwestward with some decrease in forward speed during the middle portion of the forecast period. The dynamical model guidance is in reasonably good agreement, and the NHC forecast lies near the TVCE consensus aid. The guidance envelope did shift a little southward from the previous cycle, and the new NHC forecast has been modified accordingly. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/1500Z 14.3N 114.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 15/0000Z 14.9N 115.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 15/1200Z 15.4N 117.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 16/0000Z 15.5N 119.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 16/1200Z 15.3N 120.9W 80 KT 90 MPH 60H 17/0000Z 15.0N 122.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 17/1200Z 14.9N 124.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 18/1200Z 14.9N 127.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 19/1200Z 14.8N 132.0W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Depression Six-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
2021-07-14 10:35:07| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Wed Jul 14 2021 129 WTPZ41 KNHC 140835 TCDEP1 Tropical Depression Six-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062021 300 AM MDT Wed Jul 14 2021 Satellite imagery indicates that convection associated with the low pressure area several hundred miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula continue to become better organized, with banding near and west of the low-level center. In addition, recent scatterometer data shows that the circulation has become better better defined. Based on this, advisories are initiated on Tropical Depression Six-E. The initial intensity is set to 30 kt based on reliable-looking scatterometer winds and satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB. The initial motion is 295/15. A low- to mid-level ridge to the north of the cyclone should steer it west-northwestward for the next 36 h or so, followed by a turn toward the west. Some decrease in the forward speed is likely, especially around 72-96 h when a mid- to upper-level trough north of the cyclone temporarily weakens the ridge. The forecast track guidance is in good agreement on this scenario, and the forecast track is in the center of the guidance envelope close to the consensus models. The cyclone is expected to be in an environment of light vertical wind shear through the forecast period. However, the sea surface temperatures along the forecast track cool through 96 h, and the system is expected to move into a dryer air mass. The intensity guidance generally forecasts the cyclone to reach its peak intensity in 48-72 h followed by weakening, and the intensity forecast follows the general trend of the guidance. The forecast peak intensity of 65 kt is near the upper edge of the intensity guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0900Z 14.2N 112.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 14/1800Z 14.9N 114.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 15/0600Z 15.5N 117.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 15/1800Z 15.8N 119.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 16/0600Z 15.7N 120.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 16/1800Z 15.6N 121.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 17/0600Z 15.5N 123.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 18/0600Z 15.5N 126.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 19/0600Z 15.5N 131.0W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven
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Truck driver visa options under discussion
2021-07-12 18:49:19| BBC News | Business | UK Edition
The government mulls how to deal with a lack of drivers amid warnings of food supply problems.
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