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Tropical Storm Elsa Forecast Discussion Number 14

2021-07-03 22:53:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 PM EDT Sat Jul 03 2021 810 WTNT45 KNHC 032053 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Elsa Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021 500 PM EDT Sat Jul 03 2021 Satellite imagery shows that Elsa looks ragged and disorganized at this time, with bursts of convection occuring near the low-level center and poorly-defined convective banding. Some of this is likely due to the the proximity of the system to Hispaniola. Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft have reported reliable 55-60 kt surface wind estimates from the SFMR, along with the latest central pressure report of 1000 mb. The initial intensity remains 60 kt based mainly on the SFMR data. The initial motion is now 295/24. There is little change in the forecast philosophy from the previous advisory. Elsa is approaching a weakness in the subtropical ridge caused by a large baroclinic trough over the eastern United States. The global models forecast this trough to move eastward into the Atlantic, but the southern portion is likely to split off and become an upper-level low pressure area over the western Gulf of Mexico, with the subtropical ridge over the Atlantic situated to the east of the this low. In response, Elsa should slow its forward motion and turn northwestward during the next 48 h, followed by a general northward motion from 60-96 h and recurvature into the westerlies after that time. The forecast track takes the center near or over southwestern Haiti, Cuba, and the eastern Gulf of Mexico or the Florida Peninsula during the next 3 days or so. After that, the system is likely to cross portions of the southeastern United States on its way into the Atlantic. The new forecast track is changed little from the previous advisory, and it lies near the center of the now reasonably-agreeing track guidance envelope. In addition to land interaction, Elsa continues to be affected by northwesterly shear that is at least partly due to the fast low-level flow that the storm is embedded in. Some shear is expected to continue through the next 72 h. However, once the system passes the southwestern peninsula of Haiti, there may be less land interaction than previously forecast. The intensity guidance is in good agreement on weakening during the next 48 h, and the GFS, UKMET, and ECMWF show Elsa as a not very vertically aligned system with some separation between the low- and mid-level centers over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. After that, despite the shear, upper-level divergence associated with the aforementioned upper-level low could allow for some re-intensification as forecast by the HWRF and other models. The new NHC intensity forecast calls for some weakening in the first 48 h and then shows re- intensification over the Gulf of Mexico. Through the first 72 h, the forecast remains at the upper edge of the intensity guidance. Hurricane warnings remain in effect for portions of Haiti at this time, as there is still the possibility that a short-lived re-intensification might occur due to a convective burst. Given the remaining uncertainty in the track forecast and the degree of land interaction with Hispaniola and Cuba, users are urged to factor in some of this uncertainty. For reference, average NHC track errors at days 3 and 4 are 125 miles and 150 miles, respectively. The average NHC intensity errors are around 15 mph for both days 3 and 4. Key Messages: 1. A hurricane warning remains in effect for portions of Haiti, where near-hurricane conditions and dangerous storm surge are expected through this evening. 2. Widespread heavy rain will move across southern Hispaniola and Jamaica tonight into Sunday where isolated to scattered flash flooding and mudslides will be possible. Heavy rain will then impact the Cayman Islands and Cuba Sunday into Monday resulting in significant flooding and mudslides over Cuba. As Elsa approaches the Florida Keys and Florida Peninsula early next week, isolated flash flooding and minor river flooding will be possible. 3. Tropical storm conditions and dangerous storm surge are expected with hurricane conditions possible in portions of eastern Cuba beginning early Sunday, with tropical storm conditions possible in central and western Cuba Sunday night and Monday. 4. There is an increasing risk of tropical storm conditions, storm surge, and rainfall impacts beginning Monday in the Florida Keys and the southern Florida Peninsula, and a Tropical Storm Watch is now in effect for portions of the Florida Keys. This risk will spread northward along the Florida Peninsula through Wednesday and reach the coasts of Georgia and the Carolinas Wednesday and Thursday, however uncertainty in the forecast remains larger than usual due to Elsa's potential interaction with the islands of Hispaniola and Cuba. Interests elsewhere in Florida and along the southeast U.S. coast should monitor Elsa's progress and updates to the forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/2100Z 17.5N 73.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 04/0600Z 18.7N 75.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 04/1800Z 20.2N 78.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 05/0600Z 21.6N 80.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 05/1800Z 23.1N 81.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 06/0600Z 24.9N 82.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 06/1800Z 26.9N 83.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 07/1800Z 32.0N 82.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 120H 08/1800Z 36.5N 77.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Beven

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Tropical Storm Elsa Forecast Discussion Number 13

2021-07-03 17:01:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM EDT Sat Jul 03 2021 000 WTNT45 KNHC 031501 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Elsa Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021 1100 AM EDT Sat Jul 03 2021 Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft and satellite imagery indicate that Elsa has weakened some since the last advisory. The aircraft reported maximum 700-mb flight-level winds of 64 kt well to the northeast of the center, and maximum surface winds estimates from the SFMR of about 55 kt. The aircraft-reported central pressure is near 999 mb and gradually rising, In addition, the center was exposed for a few hours, although it is now located at the northwestern edge of a new convective burst. Based on the aircraft data, the initial intensity is reduced to 60 kt. The initial motion is now 295/25. Elsa is approaching a weakness in the subtropical ridge caused by a large baroclinic trough over the eastern United States. The global models forecast this trough to move eastward into the Atlantic, but the southern portion is likely to split off and become an upper-level low pressure area over the western Gulf of Mexico, with the subtropical ridge over the Atlantic situated to the east of the this low. This evolution should cause Elsa to slow its current breakneck forward speed during the next day or so, then turn northwestward between 36-60 h, followed by a general northward motion from 72-96 h and recurvature into the westerlies after that time. The track guidance is in much better agreement than this time yesterday, and Elsa is expected to pass near or over southwestern Haiti, Cuba, and the eastern Gulf of Mexico or the Florida Peninsula during the next 3 days or so. After that, the system is likely to cross portions of the southeastern United States on its way into the Atlantic. The new NHC forecast track has only minor adjustments from the previous one, and it lies near the various consensus models. Elsa continues to be affected by northwesterly shear that is at least partly due to the fast forward motion. While the forward speed is forecast to decrease over the next few days, continued westerly shear and land interaction are expected to cause additional weakening. Indeed, by 60 h, the GFS, UKMET, and ECMWF show Elsa as a weak system with some separation between the low- and mid-level centers. While some shear is likely to continue when the storm is near or over the eastern Gulf of Mexico, upper-level divergence associated with the aforementioned upper-level low could allow for some re-intensification. The new NHC intensity forecast calls for more weakening in the first 48 h than previously forecast and then shows re-intensification over the Gulf of Mexico. Through the first 72 h, the forecast is at the upper edge of the intensity guidance. Although Elsa is now a tropical storm, hurricane warnings remain in effect for portions of the Dominican Republic and Haiti at this time, as conditions have not yet reached their worst there and the possibility that a short-lived re-intensification might occur due to a convective burst. Given that there is still uncertainty in the track forecast and the degree of land interaction with Hispaniola and Cuba, users are urged to factor in some of this uncertainty. For reference, average NHC track errors at days 3 and 4 are 125 miles and 150 miles, respectively. The average NHC intensity errors are around 15 mph for both days 3 and 4. Key Messages: 1. A hurricane warning remains in effect for portions of Haiti and the Dominican Republic, where near-hurricane conditions and dangerous storm surge are expected through this evening. 2. Widespread heavy rain will move across southern Hispaniola and Jamaica today into Sunday where isolated to scattered flash flooding and mudslides will be possible. Heavy rain will impact the Cayman Islands and Cuba Sunday into Monday, resulting in significant flooding and mudslides over Cuba. As Elsa approaches the Florida Keys and southern Florida early next week, isolated flash flooding and minor river flooding will be possible. 3. Tropical storm conditions and dangerous storm surge are expected with hurricane conditions possible in portions of eastern Cuba beginning early Sunday, with tropical storm conditions possible in central Cuba Sunday night and Monday. 4. There is an increasing risk of tropical storm conditions, storm surge, and rainfall impacts beginning Monday in the Florida Keys and the southern Florida Peninsula. This risk will spread northward along the Florida Peninsula through Wednesday and reach the coasts of Georgia and the Carolinas Wednesday and Thursday, however uncertainty in the forecast remains larger than usual due to Elsa's potential interaction with the islands of Hispaniola and Cuba. Interests in Florida and along the southeast U.S. coast should monitor Elsa's progress and updates to the forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/1500Z 17.0N 71.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 04/0000Z 18.1N 74.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 04/1200Z 19.6N 76.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 05/0000Z 21.2N 78.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 05/1200Z 22.7N 80.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 60H 06/0000Z 24.0N 81.8W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER WATER 72H 06/1200Z 25.9N 82.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 07/1200Z 30.0N 82.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 120H 08/1200Z 35.0N 78.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Beven

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Hurricane Elsa Forecast Discussion Number 12

2021-07-03 10:38:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM AST Sat Jul 03 2021 000 WTNT45 KNHC 030838 TCDAT5 Hurricane Elsa Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021 500 AM AST Sat Jul 03 2021 Elsa appears less organized this morning. Satellite images show an asymmetric cloud pattern with the low-level center located near the northwestern edge of the main area of thunderstorms. This satellite presentation is indicative of moderate-to-strong northwesterly shear that is likely caused by the tropical cyclone's fast forward motion. The initial intensity is lowered to 65 kt following a blend of the latest Dvorak estimates. The hurricane passed by NOAA buoy 42059 a few hours ago, and the storm's minimum pressure was adjusted a few millibars higher based on the buoy's data. Another Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft will be flying through Elsa in a couple of hours, and the data the plane collects will provide a better estimate of Elsa's intensity and structure. Elsa continues to move very quickly to the west-northwest at about 27 kt. A subtropical ridge to the north of the hurricane should keep it on a west-northwest path, albeit at a slightly slower pace through the weekend. This should take the core of the storm just south of or over southern Hispaniola later today and near or across Jamaica and eastern Cuba on Sunday. Shortly after that time, Elsa is expected to near the western edge of the ridge and move toward a weakness over the southeastern U.S. In response to this pattern change, Elsa should slow down some more and turn to the north. The models appear to be slowly converging on a solution in showing the cyclone making the northward turn somewhere over Cuba on Monday and then heading in the vicinity of Florida or the eastern Gulf of Mexico late Monday through Wednesday. Although the models are in better agreement compared to previous days, there is still a considerable amount of spread in the GFS and ECMWF ensemble members, and the details of the long-term track are still uncertain. Some mid-level wind shear associated with Elsa's fast forward speed appears to be affecting the hurricane now. However, since the cyclone is expected to slow down and move beneath an upper-level anticyclone later this weekend, it seems likely that the vortex will become better aligned in the vertical. The big question is will Elsa be interacting with the mountainous islands of Hispaniola and Cuba when the environmental winds become conducive for strengthening. If the cyclone manages to stay south of those islands, Elsa could have an opportunity to restrengthen. Conversely, if the storm tracks directly over the islands, weakening would very likely occur. As a compromise, the NHC intensity forecast shows little change in strength through tonight, followed by slow weakening on Sunday and early Monday. Slight restrengthening is forecast when Elsa moves north of Cuba and across the eastern Gulf of Mexico. This forecast is a little lower than the previous one in the short term, but is largely unchanged at the longer forecast times. Given that there is still uncertainty in the track forecast and the degree of land interaction with Hispaniola and Cuba, users are urged to factor in some of this uncertainty. For reference, average NHC track errors at days 3 and 4 are 125 miles and 150 miles, respectively. The average NHC intensity errors are around 15 mph for both days 3 and 4. Key Messages: 1. Hurricane conditions and dangerous storm surge are expected within the Hurricane Warning areas in Haiti and the Dominican Republic later today and in Jamaica beginning Sunday. 2. Widespread heavy rain will move across southern Hispaniola and Jamaica today into Sunday where isolated to scattered flash flooding and mudslides will be possible. Heavy rain will then impact the Cayman Islands and Cuba Sunday into Monday resulting in significant flooding with mudslides in Cuba. As Elsa approaches the Florida Keys and southern Florida early next week, isolated flash flooding and minor river flooding will be possible. 3. Hurricane conditions and dangerous storm surge are possible in portions of eastern Cuba beginning early Sunday where a Hurricane Watch is in effect. There is an increasing risk of wind, storm surge, and rainfall impacts elsewhere in Cuba Sunday and Monday. 4. There is an increasing risk of storm surge, wind, and rainfall impacts beginning Monday in the Florida Keys and spreading northward along the Florida Peninsula through Tuesday. However, the forecast uncertainty remains larger than usual due to Elsa's potential interaction with the islands of Hispaniola and Cuba this weekend. Interests throughout Florida should monitor Elsa's progress and updates to the forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0900Z 16.2N 69.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 03/1800Z 17.5N 72.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 04/0600Z 19.0N 75.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 04/1800Z 20.5N 77.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 05/0600Z 22.1N 79.7W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND 60H 05/1800Z 23.4N 81.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER WATER 72H 06/0600Z 24.7N 82.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 07/0600Z 28.2N 83.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 08/0600Z 33.7N 80.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Cangialosi/Berg

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Hurricane Elsa Forecast Discussion Number 11

2021-07-03 04:57:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 PM AST Fri Jul 02 2021 000 WTNT45 KNHC 030257 TCDAT5 Hurricane Elsa Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021 1100 PM AST Fri Jul 02 2021 Data from an Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft indicate that Elsa has weakened slightly, and that the flight-level and surface centers are not vertically aligned. The maximum 700-mb wind speed measured was 75 kt and the highest SFMR surface wind sampled was 61 kt in the northeastern quadrant. However, these data were collected outside of the strongest convection that was occurring just east of the flight track, so the intensity has only been lowered to 70 kt, which is supported by the slightly higher central pressure of 995 mb sampled by a dropsonde. The initial motion estimate now is 285/25 kt. There remains little significant change to the previous track forecast or reasoning. The latest 00Z model guidance has become more convergent and now lies nearly on top of the previous advisory track. Over the last 48 h, the ECMWF model has steadily shifted Elsa's track westward by about 1 degree of longitude each model cycle, with the latest ECMWF forecast track now being located about 240 nmi west of its forecast track two days ago. As a result, less weight has been placed on the ECMWF solution for this advisory. However, even its latest solution no longer takes Elsa over the heart of Hispaniola. Elsa should continue to move generally west-northwestward for the next 48 h, accompanied by a slow but steady decrease in forward speed. By the time the hurricane nears southern Cuba, the forward speed should be less than 15 kt. Thereafter, Elsa should gradually turn northwestward and eventually northward through a developing weakness in the subtropical ridge This motion should take Elsa across Cuba and over the eastern Gulf of Mexico or the nearby Florida Peninsula on day 4, followed by a motion over the coastal regions of the southeastern United States on day 5. The new NHC forecast track is essentially just an update of the previous advisory, and closely follows a blend of the GFS, UKMET, and HWRF models, and the TVCA simple consensus model. Elsa's fast forward speed and recent entrainment of dry mid-level air into the western semicircle has eroded some of the inner-core convection, resulting in the aforementioned weakening. In fact, NOAA G-IV dropsondes launched around 2100 UTC northwest of Elsa indicated a significant dry-air layer between 400-500-hPa that may have been imported by moderate northwesterly mid-level shear. However, as the cyclone's forward speed steadily decreases, the low-, mid-, and upper-level circulations should become more vertically aligned, which should allow for at least some slight re-strengthening during the next 24 h or so. Possible interaction with the landmasses of Haiti, southeastern Cuba, and Jamaica is the primary reason for not showing a more robust intensity forecast given the very warm water beneath the hurricane and a very favorable upper-level wind flow regime. The latest GFS and UKMET models indicate that Elsa will be moving into the center of a 300-200-mb synoptic-scale anticyclone, which would produce enhanced outflow jets to the north and south of the cyclone, resulting in significant strengthening. If Elsa ends up 'threading-the-needle' between Haiti, Jamaica, and Cuba, then subsequent intensity forecasts may have to be increased similar to the much stronger HWRF model. For now, the official NHC intensity forecast maintains continuity with the previous advisory, and shows only slight re-strengthening due to possible interaction with land. It should be noted that the average NHC track errors are 175 miles and 200 miles at days 4 and 5, respectively. Given the larger-than-normal uncertainty and because hazards will extend well away from the center of the storm, users are urged to not focus on the exact forecast points. Key Messages: 1. Hurricane conditions and dangerous storm surge are expected within the Hurricane Warning areas in Haiti and the Dominican Republic beginning Saturday and in Jamaica beginning Sunday. 2. The outer rain bands from Elsa will impact Puerto Rico by late tonight, with widespread heavy rain moving into southern Hispaniola and Jamaica Saturday into Sunday. Isolated to scattered flash flooding and mudslides are possible. Through early next week, heavy rain is expected to impact the Cayman Islands and Cuba resulting in significant flooding with mudslides possible in Cuba. 3. Hurricane conditions and dangerous storm surge are possible in portions of eastern Cuba beginning early Sunday where a Hurricane Watch is in effect. There is an increasing risk of wind, storm surge, and rainfall impacts elsewhere in Cuba Sunday and Monday. 4. There is an increasing risk of storm surge, wind, and rainfall impacts beginning Monday in the Florida Keys and spreading northward along the Florida Peninsula through Tuesday. However, the forecast uncertainty remains larger than usual due to Elsa's potential interaction with the islands of Hispaniola and Cuba this weekend. Interests throughout Florida should monitor Elsa's progress and updates to the forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0300Z 14.8N 66.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 03/1200Z 16.1N 69.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 04/0000Z 17.6N 73.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 04/1200Z 19.0N 76.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 05/0000Z 20.5N 78.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 60H 05/1200Z 22.1N 80.4W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND 72H 06/0000Z 23.7N 81.7W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER 96H 07/0000Z 27.7N 82.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 08/0000Z 32.4N 80.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Stewart/Papin

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Hurricane Elsa Forecast Discussion Number 10

2021-07-02 23:47:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 PM AST Fri Jul 02 2021 000 WTNT45 KNHC 022147 CCA TCDAT5 Hurricane Elsa Discussion Number 10...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021 500 PM AST Fri Jul 02 2021 Corrected motion heading in second paragraph. Reports from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Elsa has strengthened a little more since the last advisory, with a combination of flight-level winds, SFMR surface wind estimates, and dropsonde data showing that the maximum winds are near 75 kt. The aircraft also reported that the 700-mb circulation remains somewhat disorganized, and that the 700-mb center is not vertically aligned with with the surface center. The former issue is likely due to the rapid motion, and the latter may be due to the effects of westerly shear. The initial motion now is 280/26. There is again little change to the forecast track or the forecast guidance. The guidance is in good agreement on a rapid west-northwestward notion to near the south coast of the Dominican Republic and Haiti by 24-30 h, followed by a continued west-northwestward motion at a slower forward speed through 48 h. After that time, Elsa should gradually turn northwestward and eventually northward as it moves through a weakness in the subtropical ridge created by a mid-latitude trough over the eastern United States. This motion should take the cyclone across Cuba and over the eastern Gulf of Mexico or the nearby Florida Peninsula, eventually moving into the southeastern United States by the end of the period. The track guidance is a little less divergent than earlier, but there is still enough spread in the potential tracks that this part of the forecast remains low confidence. The latest global model runs and the associated intensity guidance are forecasting a less favorable environment for Elsa during the next several days. The SHIPS model now calls for 10-20 kt of northwesterly shear during the next 48 h, and 15-25 kt of shear after 60 h. In addition, the 12Z GFS forecasts a considerably weaker storm than its last several runs. The intensity forecast thus calls for little change in strength during the first 24 h, although it is possible the hurricane could strengthen a little more during that time. After that, land interaction and shear are likely to cause weakening until Elsa emerges into the Gulf of Mexico. However, the HWRF still calls for Elsa to intensify into a Category 3 hurricane, and like the track forecast the intensity forecast remains of low confidence due to the spread in the guidance. It should be noted that the average NHC track errors are 175 miles and 200 miles at days 4 and 5, respectively. Given the larger-than-normal uncertainty and because hazards will extend well away from the center of the storm, users are urged to not focus on the exact forecast points. Key Messages: 1. Hurricane conditions and dangerous storm surge are expected within the Hurricane Warning areas in Haiti and the Dominican Republic beginning Saturday and in Jamaica beginning Sunday. 2. Heavy rainfall will gradually subside across the Windward and southern Leeward Islands tonight, including Barbados. Outer rain bands will impact Puerto Rico by late tonight, and affect southern Hispaniola and Jamaica Saturday into Sunday. Isolated to scattered flash flooding and mudslides are possible. By early next week, heavy rain will impact the Cayman Islands and Cuba. Significant flooding and mudslides are possible. 3. Hurricane conditions and dangerous storm surge are possible in portions of eastern Cuba beginning early Sunday where a Hurricane Watch is in effect. There is an increasing risk of wind, storm surge, and rainfall impacts elsewhere in Cuba Sunday and Monday. 4. There is an increasing risk of storm surge, wind, and rainfall impacts beginning Monday in the Florida Keys and spreading northward along the Florida Peninsula through Tuesday. However, the forecast uncertainty remains larger than usual due to Elsa's potential interaction with the islands of Hispaniola and Cuba this weekend. Interests throughout Florida should monitor Elsa's progress and updates to the forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/2100Z 14.2N 63.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 03/0600Z 15.4N 67.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 03/1800Z 17.0N 71.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 04/0600Z 18.3N 74.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 04/1800Z 19.9N 77.3W 70 KT 80 MPH...INLAND 60H 05/0600Z 21.4N 79.4W 65 KT 75 MPH...OVER WATER 72H 05/1800Z 22.9N 81.1W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND 96H 06/1800Z 26.5N 83.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER 120H 07/1800Z 31.6N 82.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Beven

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