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Tropical Storm Elsa Forecast Discussion Number 25
2021-07-06 16:46:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Tue Jul 06 2021 000 WTNT45 KNHC 061446 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Elsa Discussion Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021 1100 AM EDT Tue Jul 06 2021 Elsa's overall cloud pattern has changed little in organization since earlier today. There continues to be minimal shower and thunderstorm activity over the western semicircle of the circulation, with some bursting of deep convection near and east of the estimated center. A slightly-elevated observing site on Sand Key, near Key West Florida, recently reported a peak 1-minute wind of 49 kt with a gust to 56 kt. This supports the current intensity estimate of 50 kt. Recent WSR-88D Doppler velocities from the Key West radar suggest that the storm could be a little stronger than that. The Air Force Hurricane Hunter mission into the storm has been delayed due to bad weather at the Keesler base, but is rescheduled to investigate Elsa in a few hours. This flight should provide updated information on the intensity of the system. Recently, the storm has been moving a little slower toward the north-northwest and the initial motion is about 340/9 kt. Elsa should move generally northward today and tonight between the western periphery of a subtropical ridge and an area of low pressure over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. A gradual turn toward the north-northeast should occur on Wednesday as the system moves along the northwestern periphery of the ridge. Thereafter, the cyclone is expected to accelerate northeastward ahead of a trough over the eastern United States and eastern Canada. This will take the system across the southeastern United States within the next couple of days, near the coast of New England in about 3 days and near or over Atlantic Canada in 4 days or so. The official forecast is nearly the same as the previous one and, again, very close to the model consensus. The environment over the eastern Gulf of Mexico is not ideal for strengthening, with moderate westerly shear and some dry mid-level air. However, upper-level divergence ahead of a trough over the east-central Gulf could result in some intensification of the system during the next 12-24 hours. The official forecast continues to show the cyclone nearing hurricane strength while it approaches the north Florida Gulf coast, but this is at the high end of the numerical intensity guidance. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rain will impact Cuba today resulting in significant flooding and mudslides. As Elsa moves near or along the western Florida Peninsula through Wednesday, heavy rainfall may result in isolated flash, urban, and minor river flooding, with considerable flash and urban flooding possible in southwest and western portions of Florida. Mid to late week, heavy rainfall across coastal Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina, and southeastern Virginia may result in isolated flash and urban flooding, with considerable flash and urban flooding possible across coastal Georgia and the Lowcountry of South Carolina. 2. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge along portions of the west coast of Florida tonight and Wednesday, and a Storm Surge Warning is in effect for that area. 3. Hurricane conditions are possible tonight and early Wednesday along a portion of the west coast of Florida, where a Hurricane Watch is in effect. Tropical storm conditions are occurring across portions of the Florida Keys and are expected to spread northward along much of the west coast of the state through Wednesday morning, where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect. 4. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the Georgia coast and portions of the South Carolina coast, where tropical storm conditions are possible late Wednesday and early Thursday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/1500Z 24.9N 82.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 07/0000Z 26.6N 82.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 07/1200Z 28.9N 83.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 08/0000Z 31.3N 82.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 48H 08/1200Z 33.8N 80.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 60H 09/0000Z 36.7N 76.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 72H 09/1200Z 39.5N 72.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER 96H 10/1200Z 48.0N 60.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 11/1200Z...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm Elsa Forecast Discussion Number 23
2021-07-06 04:50:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Mon Jul 05 2021 000 WTNT45 KNHC 060250 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Elsa Discussion Number 23 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021 1100 PM EDT Mon Jul 05 2021 Radar data from Cuba and Key West, Florida, along with surface observations, indicate that the center of Elsa is back over water, having emerged off the northern coast of of Cuba around 0200 UTC. Doppler velocity data from the NOAA WSR-88D at Key West indicate values of around 55 t at 10,000 ft, which supports equivalent surface winds of 49 kt. An Air Force reconnaissance aircraft flying just offshore the north coast of Cuba over deep water measured reliable SFMR surface winds of at least 50 kt. Based on these data, the intensity has been increased to 50 kt. The initial motion estimate is 330/10 kt. Just like over the past three days, no significant changes have been made to the previous track forecast or synoptic reasoning. Elsa is now moving north-northwestward around the southwestern periphery of a deep-layer ridge whose axis extends westward across the Atlantic to central Florida. The cyclone should gradually move around the ridge over the next 36 hours, turning northward on Tuesday and then north-northeastward Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. By late Wednesday, Elsa should accelerate northeastward ahead of a mid-latitude trough and frontal system, moving across the eastern United States to near Atlantic Canada. The new NHC track forecast is very similar to the previous advisory track, but was nudged slightly eastward due to the more eastward initial position, and lies a tad east of of the various tightly clustered track consensus models. Some additional strengthening is expected over the next 36 hours, with some of the SHIPS and global models showing Elsa possibly reaching 60 kt just before landfall along the northwestern Florida peninsula. This would typically require a Hurricane Watch for a small portion of northwest Florida. However, given that Elsa has been hugging a very tight mid-level moisture gradient -- a condition that is expected to continue until landfall occurs in about 36 hours -- the new official intensity forecast remains similar to the previous advisory and holds the peak intensity at 55 kt due to expected intermittent dry-air intrusions. Subsequent NHC forecasts can assess the new reconnaissance and model data that will be coming in later tonight, and determine if an increase in the intensity forecast and the issuance of a hurricane watch or warning is required. By 96 hours, the global models suggest that the cyclone will merge with a frontal zone, so the new intensity forecast continues to shows extratropical transition at that time. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rain will impact the Cayman Islands and Cuba tonight resulting in significant flooding and mudslides over Cuba. As Elsa approaches the Florida Keys, Florida Peninsula, and southeast Georgia through Wednesday, heavy rainfall may result in isolated flash, urban, and minor river flooding, with considerable flooding possible in southwest and western portions of Florida. Mid to late week, heavy rains across coastal South Carolina, North Carolina, and southeastern Virginia may result in isolated flash and urban flooding. 2. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge along portions of the west coast of Florida Tuesday night and Wednesday, and a Storm Surge Warning has been issued for that area. 3. Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue across portions of central and western Cuba tonight, and spread northward across portions of the Florida Keys and the Florida west coast through Wednesday, where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect. 4. There is a risk of tropical storm conditions along portions of the coasts of Georgia and the Carolinas Wednesday and Thursday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0300Z 23.5N 82.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 06/1200Z 24.9N 82.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 07/0000Z 26.9N 83.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 07/1200Z 29.2N 83.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 08/0000Z 31.6N 82.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 60H 08/1200Z 34.0N 79.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 72H 09/0000Z 36.9N 76.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 96H 10/0000Z 43.3N 66.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 11/0000Z 50.5N 52.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Elsa Forecast Discussion Number 22
2021-07-05 22:47:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT Mon Jul 05 2021 339 WTNT45 KNHC 052047 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Elsa Discussion Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021 500 PM EDT Mon Jul 05 2021 Satellite and radar imagery along with surface synoptic observations indicate that the tropical cyclone moved inland over west-central Cuba around 1800 UTC, accompanied by very heavy rains. Assuming that some weakening has occurred due to the influence of land, the advisory intensity is set to 45 kt. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate Elsa this evening after the center moves into the Florida Straits and will provide a better assessment of the system's intensity. The storm appears to be continuing on its northwestward track and the initial motion estimate is 315/12 kt. There are no changes to the track forecast reasoning from the previous advisory. Elsa should move between the western portion of a mid-level subtropical ridge extending westward from the Atlantic and a broad low pressure area near the northwestern Gulf of Mexico coast for the next couple of days. Later in the forecast period, the system is likely to accelerate northeastward and move from the eastern United States to near Atlantic Canada. The NHC track forecast over the eastern Gulf of Mexico is practically identical to the one from the previous advisory, and a little to the left of the previous one over the eastern United States and the Atlantic. This is in good agreement with the now tightly-clustered track model guidance. Some restrengthening of the cyclone is likely after it moves into the Gulf of Mexico, but vertical shear associated with a broad upper-level trough over the Gulf is likely to limit intensification. The official intensity forecast is slightly above the latest model consensus, IVCN. Around 96 hours, the global models suggest that the cyclone will merge with a frontal zone, so the forecast shows extratropical transition at that time. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rain will impact the Cayman Islands and Cuba through tonight resulting in significant flooding and mudslides over Cuba. As Elsa approaches the Florida Keys, Florida Peninsula, and southeast Georgia through Wednesday, heavy rainfall may result in isolated flash, urban, and minor river flooding, with considerable flooding possible in southwest and western portions of Florida. Mid- to late-week, heavy rains across coastal South Carolina, North Carolina, and southeastern Virginia may result in isolated flash and urban flooding. 2. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge along portions of the west coast of Florida Tuesday night and Wednesday, and a Storm Surge Warning has been issued for that area. 3. Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue across portions of central and western Cuba tonight, and spread northward across portions of the Florida Keys and the Florida west coast through Wednesday, where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect. 4. There is a risk of tropical storm conditions along portions of the coasts of Georgia and the Carolinas Wednesday and Thursday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/2100Z 22.7N 81.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 06/0600Z 24.1N 82.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 06/1800Z 26.1N 83.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 07/0600Z 28.2N 83.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 07/1800Z 30.6N 83.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 60H 08/0600Z 32.8N 81.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 72H 08/1800Z 35.5N 78.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 96H 09/1800Z 41.5N 69.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 10/1800Z 49.0N 56.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm Elsa Forecast Discussion Number 21
2021-07-05 16:59:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Mon Jul 05 2021 000 WTNT45 KNHC 051459 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Elsa Discussion Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021 1100 AM EDT Mon Jul 05 2021 A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft has been investigating Elsa while it approaches the south coast of Cuba this morning. Based on SFMR-observed surface winds from the aircraft, the intensity is held at 55 kt for this advisory. A center dropsonde from the plane measured 1009 mb with 26 kt at the surface, so the minimum central pressure estimate is 1006 mb, indicating no significant change since yesterday. Tail Doppler wind data from the NOAA plane showed that there is an eastward tilt of the center with height, so the storm continues to have some vertical alignment issues. Satellite imagery continues to depict convective banding features over the eastern portion of the circulation, with the center located near the western edge of the main cloud mass. Elsa continues its northwestward track with an initial motion estimate of 310/12 kt. Over the next 2-3 days, the tropical cyclone should move between a subtropical ridge over the southwest North Atlantic and a mid-level low over the northern Gulf of Mexico. In the latter part of the forecast period, Elsa is forecast to accelerate northeastward into the westerlies off the eastern United States coast and into the Atlantic, where it should lose its tropical characteristics in the vicinity of Nova Scotia. Over the eastern Gulf of Mexico, the official track track forecast has been nudged slightly westward toward the model consensus aids, HCCA and TVCA, but not as far west as that guidance. The GFS model track lies a little east of the latest NHC track. Some slight weakening is likely while Elsa crosses west-central Cuba today. Restrengthening over the Gulf of Mexico is likely to be limited by moderate westerly shear associated with a broad upper-level trough over the Gulf. The official intensity forecast is mostly higher than the numerical model consensus. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rain will impact the Cayman Islands and Cuba today resulting in significant flooding and mudslides over Cuba. As Elsa approaches the Florida Keys, the Florida Peninsula, and coastal Georgia through Wednesday, heavy rainfall may result in isolated flash, urban, and minor river flooding. Mid to late week, heavy rains across coastal South Carolina and North Carolina may result in isolated flash and urban flooding. 2. Tropical storm conditions and a dangerous storm surge are expected to continue across portions of central and western Cuba today. 3. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the Florida Keys and along the Florida west coast tonight through Tuesday night, where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect. A Tropical Storm Watch and a Storm Surge Watch are in effect for portions of the west coast of Florida and the Florida Big Bend. 4. There is a risk of tropical storm conditions and storm surge impacts along the coasts of Georgia and the Carolinas Wednesday and Thursday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/1500Z 21.5N 81.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 06/0000Z 23.2N 82.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 06/1200Z 25.0N 83.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 07/0000Z 27.0N 83.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 07/1200Z 29.3N 83.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 08/0000Z 31.5N 82.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 72H 08/1200Z 33.7N 79.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 96H 09/1200Z 38.5N 72.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER 120H 10/1200Z 44.5N 61.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm Elsa Forecast Discussion Number 20
2021-07-05 10:33:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM EDT Mon Jul 05 2021 000 WTNT45 KNHC 050832 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Elsa Discussion Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021 500 AM EDT Mon Jul 05 2021 Elsa appears to be holding steady in strength while moving just south of central Cuba. Radar data from Cuba and satellite images show a persistent area of deep convection over the center and some banding features, especially on the south side of the circulation. An ASCAT pass from around 0130Z indicated that Elsa was a compact system with tropical-storm-force winds mostly confined to a region within about 60 n mi east of the center. Peak winds in the pass were around 50 kt in the northeastern quadrant, and given the small size of the cyclone and somewhat course resolution of the ASCAT data, it seems very reasonable that Elsa has an initial intensity of around 55 kt. This intensity estimate is also in line with the latest Dvorak classifications. The NOAA Hurricane Hunters will be investigating Elsa again shortly, and the data the plane collects will be valuable in assessing the storm's intensity and wind field. The tropical storm is moving northwestward at about 12 kt on the southwestern periphery of a subtropical ridge located over the central Atlantic. A gradual turn to the north is expected over the next day or two as Elsa moves in the flow between the ridge and a mid- to upper-level low over the northern Gulf of Mexico. This steering pattern should take the core of Elsa across central or western Cuba later this morning, near the Lower Florida Keys tonight or early Tuesday, and then along or very near the west coast of Florida later on Tuesday through early Wednesday. Most of the models show Elsa moving inland over west-central or northern Florida, but given the expected parallel motion to the coast, much of the west coast of the state will likely see impacts from Elsa on Tuesday and into Wednesday. After Elsa clears Florida, it is expected to move faster north-northeastward across coastal Georgia and the Carolinas Wednesday and Thursday before moving over the western Atlantic. The new track forecast is just a little to the left of the previous one to be in better agreement with the latest consensus models. Given the overall favorable environmental conditions, Elsa could strengthen a little before it reaches the coast of Cuba later this morning. Some weakening is expected due to the land interaction with Cuba, but most of the model guidance suggests that Elsa could restrengthen slightly before it moves inland over Florida. Significant strengthening is not anticipated though due to moderate wind shear. However, it should be noted that given the expected track, much of the west coast of Florida will be on the east side of Elsa, which is where the strongest winds, highest surge, and heaviest rains are expected to be. Gradual weakening is forecast while Elsa moves across portions of the southeast U.S., but some restrengthening is possible again when the storm moves over the western Atlantic. The NHC intensity forecast is a little higher than the previous one while Elsa is expected to be over the Gulf of Mexico, and it lies near the high end of the model guidance. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rain will impact the Cayman Islands and Cuba today resulting in significant flooding and mudslides over Cuba. As Elsa approaches the Florida Keys, Florida Peninsula, and coastal Georgia Monday through Wednesday, heavy rainfall may result in isolated flash, urban, and minor river flooding. Mid to late week, heavy rains across coastal South Carolina and North Carolina may result in isolated flash and urban flooding. 2. Tropical storm conditions and a dangerous storm surge are expected to continue across portions of central and western Cuba today. Hurricane conditions are also possible along the south coast this morning. 3. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the Florida Keys and southwestern Florida tonight and Tuesday, where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect. A Tropical Storm Watch and a Storm Surge Watch are in effect for much of the west coast of Florida. 4. There is a risk of tropical storm conditions and storm surge impacts along the coasts of Georgia and the Carolinas Wednesday and Thursday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0900Z 21.0N 79.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 05/1800Z 22.2N 81.3W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND 24H 06/0600Z 23.9N 82.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER WATER 36H 06/1800Z 25.9N 83.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 07/0600Z 28.0N 83.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 07/1800Z 30.1N 83.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 72H 08/0600Z 32.5N 80.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 96H 09/0600Z 36.8N 74.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER 120H 10/0600Z 42.0N 64.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Cangialosi/Reinhart
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